Standard Chartered slashes Bitcoin price targets as ETF holders sitting on losses show no signs of buying back in. The bank sees BTC falling to $50,000 before any meaningful recovery takes hold.
Investment bank Standard Chartered has lowered its short-term and full-year crypto forecasts, citing sustained downside risk from ETF outflows and challenging macro conditions pressuring digital assets.
The bank now expects Bitcoin to slide toward $50,000 in the coming months, while Ethereum could bottom near $1,400. At publication time, BTC traded around $67,900, and ETH hovered near $1,980.
ETF Investors Face Mounting Losses
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered's head of digital assets research, warned that the recent selloff could extend as ETF investors holding unrealized losses are more inclined to exit positions than accumulate during dips.
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Holdings in Bitcoin ETFs have declined by nearly 100,000 BTC from their October 2025 peak, according to CoinDesk. The average ETF purchase price sits around $90,000, leaving many investors nursing roughly 25% losses.
Once prices establish a bottom, Kendrick expects a recovery through the remainder of 2026. The bank reduced its year-end target for Bitcoin to $100,000 from $150,000, Ethereum to $4,000 from $7,500, Solana to $135 from $250, BNB Chain to $1,050 from $1,755, and Avalanche to $18 from $100.
Macro Headwinds Strengthen
The crypto market has weakened sharply in early 2026, with Bitcoin dropping almost 23% since the start of the year. Major assets have slid significantly from late-2025 highs, with total market cap declining over recent weeks.
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Heightened volatility, large liquidations of leveraged positions, and broad risk-off sentiment have characterized the downturn. Crypto has correlated more closely with weakening equity markets as macro pressures mount.
Concerns about global growth and interest-rate outlooks have pushed investors toward traditional havens like gold. Stalled regulatory clarity, particularly in the U.S., and liquidity strains at some institutions have weighed on confidence.
Drawdown Less Severe Than Previous Cycles
Kendrick noted that while U.S. economic data show signs of softening, markets expect no interest-rate cuts before Kevin Warsh's first Federal Open Market Committee meeting as Federal Reserve chair in mid-June. This limits near-term support for risk assets.
Despite the expected capitulation, Standard Chartered said the current drawdown remains less severe than previous cycles. At its worst point in early February, Bitcoin was down about 50% from its October 2025 all-time high, with roughly half of supply remaining in profit.
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Crucially, this cycle has not witnessed the collapse of major crypto platforms, unlike 2022's failures of Terra/Luna and FTX. Kendrick suggested this indicates the asset class is maturing and becoming more resilient.
Long-Term Outlook Unchanged
The bank left its longer-term projections unchanged, maintaining end-2030 targets of $500,000 for Bitcoin and $40,000 for Ethereum. Kendrick argued that usage trends and structural drivers remain intact despite near-term turbulence.
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Combined pressures from reduced trading revenues for crypto-exposed firms and bearish sentiment across many tokens have led to widespread weakness. However, Standard Chartered maintains a constructive view on the asset class over the longer term.
3 Key Takeaways:
Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin falling to $50K with Ethereum dropping to $1.4K amid sustained ETF outflows
ETF holders face 25% unrealized losses with average purchase price at $90K as nearly 100K BTC withdrawn since peak
Bank maintains end-2030 targets at $500K for Bitcoin despite slashing 2026 forecast to $100K from prior $150K
This Article First Appeared on: https://www.cryptonewslive.org/article/bitcoin-eyes-50k-drop-as-etf-outflows-intensify