17 February ko gold market mein strong selling dekhne ko mili, jahan prices 2% se zyada gir gayin. Is move ne yeh clear kar diya ke safe-haven demand filhal weak ho rahi hai. Gold ki girawat ke peeche do main reasons samne aaye: pehla, U.S.-Iran talks mein progress ki khabar; doosra, U.S. dollar ka mazboot hona. Jab geopolitical tension kam hoti nazar aati hai, investors ka fear level neeche aata hai, aur safe-haven assets jaise gold se paisa nikalna shuru ho jata hai. Isi wajah se spot gold mein sharp decline record hui aur futures ne bhi strong downside close diya.
Dollar index mein izafa bhi is pressure ka ek bada sabab bana. Gold dollar mein price hota hai, is liye jab dollar strong hota hai to overseas buyers ke liye gold mehnga padta hai. Mehnga hone ki wajah se physical aur investment demand dono par asar aata hai. Demand mein slowdown aaye to price naturally pressure mein chali jati hai. Market participants ne isi mechanism ko Tuesday session mein clearly witness kiya.
Analytical perspective se dekhein to bull market ko hamesha naye bullish catalysts chahiye hote hain. Agar fresh positive triggers na milen, to momentum lose ho jata hai aur correction fast ho sakti hai. Gold aur silver dono mein yahi pattern bana: pehle strong uptrend, phir supportive news flow ki kami, aur phir strong profit-taking. Senior market analysts ka point bhi yahi tha ke current rally ko sustain rakhne ke liye naye fundamental drivers nazar nahi aa rahe thay.
U.S.-Iran talks ke hawale se Iranian foreign minister ne “guiding principles” par understanding ka zikr kiya. Iska matlab final deal nahi, lekin market ne isay de-escalation signal ke taur par liya. Saath hi Russia-Ukraine issue par U.S.-mediated talks ka hona bhi uncertainty ko temporary taur par calm karta hai. Jab war risk premium kam hota hai, to gold jese assets mein defensive buying kam ho jati hai. Yani geopolitics ne is dafa gold ko support dene ke bajaye opposite reaction diya.
Ab market ka focus macroeconomic data par shift ho chuka hai. Federal Reserve ki January meeting minutes aur U.S. inflation-related indicators investors ke liye next major triggers hain. Rate-cut expectations agar strong hoti hain, to medium term mein gold ko support mil sakta hai, kyunki gold non-yielding asset hai aur low-interest-rate environment mein relative taur par attractive ho jata hai. Lekin short term mein agar dollar strong raha aur yields elevated rahein, to upside limited reh sakti hai.
Is session mein weakness sirf gold tak mehdood nahi rahi. Silver ne bhi strong decline dikhayi, jabke platinum aur palladium bhi lower trade hue. Is se yeh samajh aata hai ke move isolated nahi tha, balke broad precious metals complex mein risk repricing chal rahi thi. Liquidity conditions bhi ek factor rahi, kyunki Lunar New Year holidays ki wajah se Asia ke kai major markets band thay. Thin liquidity mein price swings aam tor par zyada sharp hoti hain.
Egypt jaise markets mein physical gold bars ki demand ka trend alag dynamic show karta hai. Wahan local currency concerns, inflation fears, aur wealth preservation motives ki wajah se physical demand barh sakti hai, chahe global spot market short term pressure mein ho. Yani global futures movement aur local safe-haven behavior kabhi kabhi opposite direction mein bhi chal sakte hain, depending on domestic economic stress.
Final understanding yeh hai ke recent gold drop ek single headline ki wajah se nahi, balke multiple factors ka combined result tha: diplomacy progress, stronger dollar, limited fresh bullish catalysts, aur positioning shifts. Aage ka direction largely teen cheezon se decide hoga: U.S. inflation data, Fed policy expectations, aur geopolitical headlines ka next phase. Agar data dovish narrative ko support kare to recovery possible hai; warna near term mein consolidation ya further downside pressure continue ho sakta hai.