This morning I opened the BTC chart the way I usually do. Price looked “fine,” but the market felt heavy — that kind of sideways action where your brain keeps searching for a clean signal and your emotions keep asking for certainty.
Then I read a couple of Federal Reserve comments and my mindset shifted fast. Not because they were dramatic, but because they were clear: the next big move in risk assets often starts with liquidity expectations, not with a perfect candle.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly’s message (reported Feb 17, 2026) was straightforward: inflation still needs to come down further, so keeping policy “modestly restrictive” can still make sense. What hit me more was the reminder that job growth can be concentrated in a smaller set of areas, and that concentration can quietly turn into fragility if conditions change.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (also reported Feb 17, 2026) sounded a bit more conditional-optimistic: if inflation gets back on a clear path toward 2%, several rate cuts in 2026 could be possible. But the key word is “if” — the market loves to price the outcome before the proof shows up, and that’s where whipsaws happen.
Another point I can’t ignore is the broader caution coming from Fed leadership: even if the data improves, the Fed may prefer to hold for longer until there’s a sustained, convincing trend. That’s not bearish by itself — it’s just a reminder that “cuts soon” is a narrative, while “cuts confirmed” is a process.
My takeaway for crypto is simple and non-dramatic. If rate cuts get pushed out, risk assets can stay choppy because liquidity doesn’t loosen the way people hope. If the path to cuts becomes clearer, it can act as a tailwind — not a guarantee, just better oxygen for risk appetite.
Personally, I’m watching the macro signals that quietly drive the mood: inflation trend (especially services), yields, and the dollar. I’m also watching leverage/funding behavior, because when the market gets overcrowded, even good news can cause messy moves. This isn’t financial advice — just how I’m framing the day so I don’t let a noisy chart control my decisions.