Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is testing the critical 58% floor; a sustained break below this level historically signals the start of a massive capital rotation into altcoins.
The ISM PMI has rebounded to 52.6, its highest level since 2022. Reaching the “55 threshold” would confirm a macro risk-on environment ideal for crypto speculation.
The Russell 2000 Index is outperforming large caps by 4% in early 2026, mirroring the small-cap rallies that preceded the 2017 and 2021 altcoin manias.
The ever-volatile world of cryptocurrency, traders and investors are always on the lookout for signs of an “altseason” – that exhilarating period when alternative cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin, leading to massive gains across the board. A recent post by prominent crypto analyst Ash Crypto has reignited excitement, providing a “daily dose of hopium” with charts highlighting historical patterns and macroeconomic correlations that could signal the start of such a phase.
The Macro Catalyst: Linking ISM PMI Expansion to Crypto Risk Appetite
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D), which measures Bitcoin’s market cap share relative to the total crypto market, is a key metric here. The chart shared shows sharp declines in BTC.D during past altseasons, such as in March-July 2017 and January-May 2021, where dominance dropped significantly, allowing altcoins to surge. Currently, BTC.D sits at 58.67%, and Ash Crypto emphasizes that a break below 58% could be the trigger. This drop would indicate capital rotating from Bitcoin into riskier altcoins, a classic precursor to altseason rallies.
Your daily dose of hopium for altseason.
We need:
ISM above 55 which is now at 52.6
Russell 2000 moving higher
BTC dominance dropping below 58% pic.twitter.com/ftsxiRd2BC
— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) February 17, 2026
Adding a macroeconomic layer, the post correlates altseasons with the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (ISM PMI). Historically, when the ISM PMI rises above 55, it signals economic expansion, boosting risk appetite in markets including crypto. The chart labels periods above this threshold as aligned with altseasons, but the current reading is 52.6, indicating contraction. However, with recent trends showing potential for recovery – driven by factors like anticipated rate cuts and improving liquidity – many believe we’re close to crossing that line.
Historical Parallels: Lessons from the 2017 and 2021 Liquidity Rotations
Another critical factor is the Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-cap stocks and often reflects broader market sentiment toward risk assets. Ash Crypto notes that upward movement in the Russell 2000 is essential, as it mirrors the speculative fervor that spills over into altcoins. In previous cycles, small-cap rallies coincided with crypto booms, suggesting that if the index continues its climb, altcoins could follow suit.
While these indicators aren’t foolproof – dominance metrics can be skewed by stablecoins, and macro data is influenced by global events – the alignment is tantalizing. Crypto markets thrive on narratives, and this hopium could propel sentiment. Investors should monitor these levels closely: a BTC.D breakdown, ISM PMI rebound, and Russell strength might just unleash the next altseason wave. As always, in crypto, timing is everything, and diversification remains key to navigating the hype.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. CoinCryptoNewz is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.
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