$JTO
— High-Probability Distribution Setup
0.3U short initiated at 100K.
All tokens are fully unlocked — no supply overhang narrative left to defend. What remains is concentrated inventory sitting in strong hands with clear cost bases. The top 100 wallets control ~69% of total supply — that’s structural centralization risk, not “community strength.”
Volume just printed 1.3× market cap. That’s not organic demand — that’s churn. When volume exceeds float velocity at this scale post-drawdown, it typically signals distribution, not accumulation.
After a prolonged decline, genuine support requires fresh structural bids. Instead, we’re seeing reactive bounces on thinning liquidity. Fee reductions + sudden activity spikes suggest facilitation of exit liquidity, not sustainable upside.
Market makers don’t defend exhausted narratives — they rotate inventory. What looks like momentum is often inventory transfer.
Bias: downside continuation.
Invalidation: sustained reclaim with organic spot absorption.
This isn’t panic — it’s positioning.