$PIPPIN
— Distribution in Plain Sight?
Added exposure this morning. Total size now ~200K.
Unrealized P/L: +50K.
But forget the flex — focus on the structure.
A single whale reportedly controls hundreds of millions of tokens. So far, only a fraction has been unloaded — yet price reacted aggressively. That tells you something about liquidity depth.
When limited selling causes outsized downside, it usually signals one thing: thin bid support.
Trend-wise, the chart has shifted from impulse rallies to lower highs and reactive bounces. In weak structures, upside moves often function as liquidity events — not true reversals.
If large holders continue distributing into strength, supply overhang becomes the dominant narrative. Markets don’t collapse because of fear — they compress when inventory overwhelms demand.
This isn’t about calling zero. It’s about recognizing imbalance.
High concentration + visible distribution + fragile liquidity = elevated downside risk.
In environments like this, risk management matters more than conviction. Trade the structure, not the story.