$DASH
— Momentum Exhaustion or Just a Pause?
Position size referenced: ~300K notional.
Price path:
60 → 50 → 40 → 36.
That’s not noise — that’s a trend.
When an asset stair-steps lower like this, it signals persistent supply. Each failed bounce creates a lower high. Each breakdown resets the risk curve.
Sector Context Matters
The privacy-coin narrative had its expansion phase earlier in the cycle. Sector rotations don’t last forever. Once thematic momentum fades, capital migrates. Late entries tend to become liquidity.
Regulatory Overhang
Privacy-focused assets often trade with an embedded regulatory discount. Any renewed policy pressure can compress multiples quickly — especially when speculative flows dominate.
Technical Structure
After multiple legs down, the key question isn’t “is it cheap?”
It’s “is there evidence of accumulation?”
Without sustained spot-led absorption and higher-lows formation, downside continuation remains statistically plausible. In trend markets, continuation is more common than reversal.
This isn’t about certainty — markets don’t offer that.
It’s about probabilities, positioning, and managing risk.
When narrative fades + momentum weakens + macro pressure builds, volatility expands.
Trade the data.
Respect the trend.
Protect capital.