$RIVER Trade Bias: LONG 📈

Higher Timeframe (4H) Narrative:

We’ve crashed from ~27 down to 8.6. That’s a -68% move. But look at the funding history: it just flipped from negative to heavily negative (-0.315% at the last snapshot). That means shorts are now paying to stay short. This is the first sign of exhaustion. The 4H structure is still bearish, but momentum is slowing. The massive wicks on the latest candles show sellers are being absorbed.

Lower Timeframe Execution (15m/1h):

Price is compressing. The Supertrend has flattened, and the Bollinger Bands are squeezing tightly (UP: 9.03, MB: 8.82, DN: 8.61). RSI is recovering from 19 to 35—no longer buried. MACD histogram is curling up. This is a coiled spring.

Market Psychology & The Trap:

Retail sees -31.5% and thinks “short more.” They see the low and pile on late. But the order book tells the real story: massive bid support stacked from 8.2 down to 7.5. Smart money is accumulating. The shorts are crowded and complacent, paying funding to hold. They are the fuel.

🔥 The Setup:

· Entry Zone: 8.65 – 8.68 (current consolidation, waiting for a 15m close above 8.70 to confirm)

· Stop Loss: 8.58 (below today’s low and the lower BB)

· Target 1: 8.85 (sweep the recent minor high / funding rate change level)

· Target 2: 9.20 (prior support-turned-resistance / 50 EMA on the 15m)

· Target 3: 9.80 (liquidity grab above the 4H open)

· Risk-to-Reward: 1:3 on first target, 1:6 on full runners

Invalidation: A daily close below 8.50. That would signal a new leg down.

This is a short squeeze setup. We’re not bottom fishing—we’re trading the overcrowded short thesis. The moment price nudges up, the covering will accelerate. 💣