the U.S. government’s "market referee"—the CFTC made a move that could change how we "predict" the future forever!
If you’re new to this, Prediction Markets (like Polymarket or Kalshi) are platforms where you buy and sell shares based on the outcome of real-world events. Instead of just "betting," you are essentially trading on the probability of things like who will win an election, a sports game, or even a major tech launch.
Here is the big update for today (February 18, 2026):
For a long time, individual states (like Nevada) have tried to shut these platforms down, calling them "illegal gambling." But the new CFTC Chairman, Michael Selig, just officially filed a legal brief stating that these are federally protected financial markets, not just casinos. He basically told the states to "back off," claiming the federal government has the exclusive authority to regulate them.
This is a huge win for the industry because it provides a "legal shield" that helps these apps stay open and grow. While some critics still argue it’s just a fancy way to gamble, supporters say it’s the most accurate way in the world to gather information and "hedge" against real-world risks.