$INIT Trade Bias: LONG 📈

Higher Timeframe (4H/1H) Narrative:

We dumped from 0.138 down to 0.102—a -26% washout. But look closely: volume is collapsing on the way down (269M → 98M → 32M → 1.5M). That’s not selling pressure; that’s absence of buyers. The panic is over. The funding history is the real tell: every single hour for the last 11 hours has been negative funding. Shorts have been getting paid to hold, yet price refuses to go lower. That’s exhaustion.

Lower Timeframe Execution (15m):

Price is coiling in a tight range between 0.1048 and 0.1055. The Bollinger Bands are squeezing (UP: 0.1115, MB: 0.1069, DN: 0.1024). RSI is recovering from 33 to 48—momentum is building quietly. The order book shows heavy bid support at 0.10 (631k) and 0.09 (816k). This is a floor, not a ceiling.

Market Psychology & The Trap:

Retail sees -22% and thinks “short the bounce.” They see the rejection at 0.106 and pile in late, betting on a breakdown. But the smart money is stacking bids and letting the shorts fund their position. The longs who bought the top are already washed out. The new shorts are the exit liquidity.

🔥 The Setup:

· Entry Zone: 0.1050 – 0.1053 (current consolidation, waiting for a 15m close above 0.1055 to confirm)

· Stop Loss: 0.1040 (below today’s low and the recent sweep)

· Target 1: 0.1085 (sweep the mini-range high / 15m resistance)

· Target 2: 0.1120 (prior support / 4H open)

· Target 3: 0.1160 (liquidity grab above the 4H EMAs)

· Risk-to-Reward: 1:3 on first target, 1:6 on full runners

Invalidation: A daily close below 0.1020. That would trap the bulls.

This is a short squeeze + exhaustion setup. The shorts are crowded, paying to be wrong, and the bids are real. We’re not guessing a bottom—we’re trading the structural imbalance. 💣