Bitcoin is stretching out in a prolonged distribution phase while momentum continues to fade. The longer this topping structure develops, the more significant the eventual unwind tends to be.
Throughout this cycle, price has followed a consistent cause-and-effect pattern. A 147-day accumulation preceded a $12,650 expansion. A 238-day reaccumulation fueled a $41,111 rally.
Then a 251-day reaccumulation led to another $49,990 advance. Each period of compression translated into a proportional expansion in price.
Now the structure has shifted. Bitcoin has spent roughly 455 days in distribution the longest consolidation phase of the entire cycle by a wide margin. Trend strength is deteriorating, with failed breakouts and weakening upside follow-through signaling early markdown behavior.
If the same time-to-expansion relationship continues to hold, the downside move emerging from this distribution range could surpass any corrective phase seen so far this cycle.



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