$BTC is stretching deeper into a broad distribution phase while upside momentum continues to fade and historically, the longer a top builds, the heavier the unwind that follows.
Throughout this cycle, price has respected a clear cause and effect relationship between time spent compressing and the magnitude of expansion that followed.
A 147-day accumulation preceded a $12,650 expansion. The 238-day reaccumulation phase fueled a $41,111 upside move.
Then a 251-day reaccumulation produced another $49,990 leg higher. Each period of compression translated directly into the scale of the breakout that came after it.
Now the structure has shifted. $BTC has spent roughly 455 days in distribution the longest consolidation phase of the entire cycle by a wide margin.
Trend strength is deteriorating, rallies are failing to sustain, and buyer follow through is noticeably weakening. Early markdown characteristics are beginning to appear through failed highs and fading momentum.
If the same proportional relationship between time and expansion continues to hold, the downside leg emerging from this extended distribution range could exceed any corrective move seen so far this cycle.
