Bitwise and GraniteShares file for election prediction market ETFs

Bitwise and GraniteShares have filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch exchange-traded funds tied to event contracts based on US election outcomes.

Bitwise submitted a prospectus for a new ETF lineup branded PredictionShares, consisting of six prediction-market-style ETFs to be listed on NYSE Arca. The structure includes:

Two funds tied to the 2028 US presidential election (one per major party winner)

Two funds tied to the 2026 Senate election outcome

Two funds tied to the 2026 House election outcome

Each fund will invest at least 80% of net assets in binary event contracts traded on exchanges regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. These contracts settle at $1 if the specified outcome occurs and $0 if it does not, meaning a fund could lose nearly all its value if the predicted result fails.

GraniteShares filed for six similar ETFs with the same binary outcome structure tied to US elections.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart commented that the “financialization and ETF-ization of everything” is continuing. He also noted that this is not the first such filing, pointing to similar prediction-market ETF proposals previously submitted by Roundhill.