When Will the Next Bitcoin Bull Market Start?

According to Alphractal, the key signal lies in one metric: LTH NUPL.

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) for Long-Term Holders measures the average unrealized profit or loss of the most resilient Bitcoin investors — those who hold through full market cycles.

Currently, LTH NUPL is at 0.36.
This means long-term holders are still, on average, sitting in unrealized profit.

But the real signal doesn’t appear in the green zone.

The Critical Level: Below Zero
Historically, the most important transition happens when LTH NUPL turns negative.

When this occurs:

• Even the strongest holders are in unrealized loss
• Market sentiment reaches maximum depression
• Selling pressure becomes exhausted
• Coins transfer from weak hands to strong hands

This phase has consistently marked the final stage of bear markets in previous cycles.

It represents capitulation — not panic selling from newcomers, but deep structural exhaustion across the market.

What It Means
The next sustainable Bitcoin bull cycle is unlikely to begin from optimism.

It begins when conviction is tested.
When even long-term believers are underwater.
When the market feels structurally broken.

That is where new cycles are born.

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Data. Structure. Logic.
Cryptodatex