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ESP
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It took 30 months for Bitcoin to hit a new ATH after 2021.
$BTC
If the cycle repeats, Bitcoin doesn’t see $120K until 2028.
And what I fear the most?
This cycle is NOT DIFFERENT in terms of price action.
Let that sink in.
1️⃣ PHASE ONE: FIRST TOP → SHOCK
March 2021.
Bitcoin prints its first major top.
Momentum overheated.
Retail euphoric.
RSI stretched.
Then came the correction.
Fast forward.
December 2024.
First top of this cycle.
Again, overheated conditions.
Again, stretched RSI.
Again, sharp reset.
Same structure. Different year.
The market always cools off after vertical expansion.
That hasn’t changed.
2️⃣ PHASE TWO: SECOND TOP → DISTRIBUTION
October 2021.
Bitcoin pushes to a second top.
It looks strong.
It feels bullish.
But momentum is already weaker than the first peak.
Then the “depressing weeks of red” begin.
Slow bleed. Lower highs. Emotional exhaustion.
Now look at October 2025.
Second top again.
And what do we see?
Momentum divergence.
RSI weaker than the first peak.
Price rejection.
Once again, distribution.
History doesn’t repeat perfectly.
But it rhymes almost uncomfortably.
3️⃣ PHASE THREE: THE BORING BASE
After the 2021 second top, BTC didn’t crash instantly into a new cycle.
It compressed.
RSI reset into bear-market zones.
Only after that reset did the real macro reversal begin.
Now in 2026, we are in that same compression phase.
Weekly RSI is sitting near levels that historically mark exhaustion.
Price is hovering around prior ATH instead of collapsing.
This phase feels the worst because nothing exciting happens.
But structurally, this is where cycles rebuild.
4️⃣ THE 30-MONTH REALITY
2021 peak → 2024 ATH breakout = ~30 months.
Time was the real catalyst.
If we mirror that timeline from the October 2025 second top, expansion doesn’t happen instantly.
It stretches toward 2027–2028.
Which aligns with that projected $120K zone on the right side of the chart.
Not because of hope.
Because of historical rhythm.
Every cycle has:
• Euphoria
• Double top distribution
• Weeks of red
• Momentum reset
• Boring base
• Delayed expansion
We are currently between “weeks of red” and “base building.”
And if this cycle is not different in price behavior
Then the real move isn’t behind us.
It’s just not scheduled for tomorrow.
The uncomfortable truth?
Bitcoin may simply be doing what it has always done.
And that means patience now and expansion later.
FOLLOW LIKE SHARE
If the cycle repeats, Bitcoin doesn’t see $120K until 2028.
And what I fear the most?
This cycle is NOT DIFFERENT in terms of price action.
Let that sink in.
1️⃣ PHASE ONE: FIRST TOP → SHOCK
March 2021.
Bitcoin prints its first major top.
Momentum overheated.
Retail euphoric.
RSI stretched.
Then came the correction.
Fast forward.
December 2024.
First top of this cycle.
Again, overheated conditions.
Again, stretched RSI.
Again, sharp reset.
Same structure. Different year.
The market always cools off after vertical expansion.
That hasn’t changed.
2️⃣ PHASE TWO: SECOND TOP → DISTRIBUTION
October 2021.
Bitcoin pushes to a second top.
It looks strong.
It feels bullish.
But momentum is already weaker than the first peak.
Then the “depressing weeks of red” begin.
Slow bleed. Lower highs. Emotional exhaustion.
Now look at October 2025.
Second top again.
And what do we see?
Momentum divergence.
RSI weaker than the first peak.
Price rejection.
Once again, distribution.
History doesn’t repeat perfectly.
But it rhymes almost uncomfortably.
3️⃣ PHASE THREE: THE BORING BASE
After the 2021 second top, BTC didn’t crash instantly into a new cycle.
It compressed.
RSI reset into bear-market zones.
Only after that reset did the real macro reversal begin.
Now in 2026, we are in that same compression phase.
Weekly RSI is sitting near levels that historically mark exhaustion.
Price is hovering around prior ATH instead of collapsing.
This phase feels the worst because nothing exciting happens.
But structurally, this is where cycles rebuild.
4️⃣ THE 30-MONTH REALITY
2021 peak → 2024 ATH breakout = ~30 months.
Time was the real catalyst.
If we mirror that timeline from the October 2025 second top, expansion doesn’t happen instantly.
It stretches toward 2027–2028.
Which aligns with that projected $120K zone on the right side of the chart.
Not because of hope.
Because of historical rhythm.
Every cycle has:
• Euphoria
• Double top distribution
• Weeks of red
• Momentum reset
• Boring base
• Delayed expansion
We are currently between “weeks of red” and “base building.”
And if this cycle is not different in price behavior
Then the real move isn’t behind us.
It’s just not scheduled for tomorrow.
The uncomfortable truth?
Bitcoin may simply be doing what it has always done.
And that means patience now and expansion later.
FOLLOW LIKE SHARE
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