On February 18, 2026, the FOMC released minutes from the January meeting that revealed a surprising hawkish undertone. While the market had been bracing for a potential "pause and pivot," the internal records tell a more complicated story.
🔍 The Disconnect
Jay Powell’s Presser: During the post-meeting conference, Powell was clear—a rate hike is "not anybody’s base case right now." He emphasized that the Fed is well-positioned to wait and see how previous cuts impact the economy.
The FOMC Minutes: The "carefully edited" minutes told a different tale, revealing that "several" officials wanted the central bank to explicitly tell the markets that a rate hike remains on the table if inflation doesn't cool faster.
The Rosenberg Take: Economist David Rosenberg noted this friction on X, highlighting the dilemma for investors: Do you trust the Chairman’s verbal reassurance, or the written dissent within the committee?
📉 Market Impact
The benchmark rate currently sits at 3.5%–3.75%. While traders are still pricing in potential cuts for June and September 2026, the "sticky inflation" mentioned in the minutes has introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty.