Bitcoin is hovering right at a pressure point — and this isn’t noise. It’s structure.
Price is circling the prior $59,800 low, and if that level gets swept, two very different paths open immediately.
🔻 Scenario 1: Bear Trap
A liquidity sweep into the $59,700–$58,600 pocket.
That’s just deep enough to trigger stops, trap late shorts, and flush weak longs — but not deep enough to damage the broader structure.
In prior cycles, $BTC has repeatedly wicked below key lows before reclaiming them aggressively. Liquidity gets cleared first. Confirmation comes after.
🔻 Scenario 2: Broader Correction
If momentum expands with volume and acceptance below that range, the next structural projection sits near $49,865 — derived from the wider $59,800–$72,300 range expansion.
That wouldn’t be random. It would align with historical ~50–55% drawdowns seen during prior mid-cycle resets.
Now here’s the critical layer most traders ignore:
The 5-year SMA sits around $55,600.
Historically, that level has acted as a macro compression zone — where long-term risk/reward begins shifting again. When $BTC trades near multi-year cost bases, asymmetry changes.
So the question isn’t simply “down or up.”
It’s:
– Do we see a fast rejection and reclaim? → Bear trap probability increases.
– Or do we see sustained acceptance below key structure? → Deeper unwind in motion.
Liquidity gets hunted first.
Trend gets confirmed second.
This is a positioning battlefield — not a prediction game.
Is this the final shakeout before expansion… or the first crack in something larger?
