K33 reports that Bitcoin’s current derivatives and market positioning resemble the conditions seen at the bottom of the 2022 bear market, according to a composite model that tracks factors like derivatives yields, open interest, ETF flows, and macro indicators. Vetle Lunde, Head of Research, notes several signs of defensive behavior in the market, including consistently negative funding rates, a sharp decline in open interest, and reduced leverage — all pointing to traders closing out positions rather than taking new directional bets.

Spot and futures activity has significantly slowed following recent sell-offs, with trading volumes and futures positioning dropping to multi-month lows. Volatility has started to stabilize, which typically occurs as markets transition from capitulation to stabilization. Institutional involvement also seems cautious, with low activity on CME and declines in Bitcoin ETP holdings, though most institutional exposure remains steady compared to peak levels.

K33 observes that similar market conditions in the past have led to market bottoms, but these were followed by slow, range-bound consolidations rather than quick rebounds. Based on historical patterns, the firm expects modest or slightly negative returns over the next 90 days. Consequently, they forecast that Bitcoin will remain range-bound, between $60,000 and $75,000, for an extended period. This environment may present attractive long-term entry points, but recovery is likely to be gradual, requiring patience rather than signaling an immediate breakout.

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