Key Points Highlighted:
Market Plunge: XRP slides toward $1.4 as hawkish Fed Minutes and crypto-spot ETF outflows crush investor sentiment.
Geopolitical Shockwaves: Rising US-Iran war risks trigger a flight-to-safety, intensifying the sell-off in risk assets like XRP.
Silver Lining: Despite short-term pain, ETF demand and hopes for the Market Structure Bill keep the medium-term target of $2.5–$3.0 alive.
XRP News Today: Fed Minutes and Geopolitics Weigh Heavy
XRP is facing intense selling pressure, tumbling toward the $1.4 support level. A trifecta of negative catalysts—hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, escalating US-Iran tensions, and sustained outflows from crypto-spot ETFs—has rattled investor confidence and dampened demand for digital assets.
Hawkish FOMC Minutes Dampen Rate Cut Hopes
The release of the FOMC Minutes on February 18 revealed a more cautious Federal Reserve than markets had anticipated. While a June rate cut remains possible, the Minutes indicated that most members view rates as near "neutral," requiring further evidence of cooling inflation before committing to easing.
Market Reaction: The probability of a June rate cut dipped slightly, and XRP reacted immediately, falling from $1.4452 to a low of $1.4111.
US-Iran Conflict: A Looming Shadow
Adding to the market's anxiety is the growing risk of military conflict in the Middle East. Reports from Axios suggest the US is closer to a significant military engagement with Iran than publicly acknowledged.
Why it Matters for Crypto: Historically, major geopolitical conflicts (like the Russia-Ukraine war) have triggered sharp crypto downturns as liquidity dries up and investors flee to safety. For XRP, which facilitates cross-border payments, a conflict could disrupt trade and increase regulatory scrutiny, potentially stalling adoption.
ETF Outflows Add to the Gloom
The negative sentiment is spilling over into the ETF market. US BTC-spot ETFs saw over $104 million in net outflows recently, contributing to Bitcoin's 23.8% year-to-date decline and dragging the broader market down with it.
XRP-Specific Impact: While the US XRP-spot ETFs have been a pillar of strength since launch, they too reported a rare net outflow day on February 18, signaling that bearish sentiment is beginning to affect even the most resilient corners of the market.
XRP Price Forecast: A Battle of Headwinds vs. Tailwinds
The short-term outlook is cautious, but the medium-term story remains bullish.
Short-Term (1-4 Weeks): Cautiously Bearish ($1.0 Target)
Drivers: Geopolitical tensions, persistent ETF outflows, and any delays in regulatory bills could push XRP toward the $1.0 support level.
Medium-Term (4-8 Weeks): Bullish ($2.5 Target)
Drivers: Passage of the Market Structure Bill, a de-escalation in the Middle East, and a return of robust ETF demand could fuel a sharp recovery.
Longer-Term (8-12 Weeks): Bullish ($3.0+ Target)
Drivers: A dovish Fed, a clear regulatory framework, and increased utility for XRP in payments could drive prices toward the all-time high of $3.66 and beyond.
Key Levels to Watch
Immediate Support: $1.0
Critical Resistance: $1.5 (first hurdle to reclaiming bullish momentum)
EMA Resistance: 50-day EMA at $1.6996; 200-day EMA at $2.1228.
The Bottom Line
XRP is currently caught between powerful macro headwinds (Fed policy, war risks) and strong micro tailwinds (ETF adoption, regulatory progress). The path to $2.5 and beyond depends on the Middle East conflict de-escalating and the US Senate passing the Market Structure Bill. Until then, traders should brace for potential volatility, with $1.0 acting as the line in the sand.
