Bitcoin is at one of the most important levels it has seen in years — and most people aren't paying attention.
On the yearly timeframe, $BTC opened 2026 at $87,496, swept highs near $97,939, and sold off aggressively to a low of $59,930. We are currently sitting at $66,810 with 10 months still left in this candle.
That is not a small move. That is the market telling you something.
The resistance zone between $119,090 and $125,291 has been clearly defined. Price approached it and got rejected. Until Bitcoin closes a yearly candle above that range, it remains a ceiling — not a breakout.
On the downside, the key levels are straightforward. $66,810 is where we are. $59,930 is the yearly low and the last line of defense before a deeper structural shift. $40,000 is the major macro support that has held since 2023. Losing that on a monthly close would change the entire narrative.
The context most people are missing is the halving cycle. The 2024 halving is still working its way through the market. Historically the full impact of a halving takes 12 to 18 months to reflect in price. We are still inside that window. The 2025 high of $109,000 may have been the cycle peak — or it may have been an early high before a final push. The yearly chart has not confirmed either scenario yet.
What I am watching for is simple. A monthly close above $74,783 would shift momentum back to the bulls. A monthly close below $59,930 changes the macro structure entirely and opens the door to $40,000.
Everything in between is noise.
The yearly candle is still open. Reserve your conclusions until it closes.
Where do you see BTC by the end of 2026? Comment below.
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