THIS IS SERIOUS.
Trump announced massive tax refunds for 2026, around $100 billion.
This is a support mechanism.
When governments start sending out large refunds, it usually means demand is weakening and confidence is fragile.
This is not free money.
According to budget projections, this package is projected to add TRILLIONS to long-term deficits even after supposed offsets.
What happens next is predictable.
1. FIRST COMES THE SHORT TERM BOOST:
- Cash enters the system
- Spending rises
- Markets react positively
- Headlines turn optimistic
- People feel safe again
2. THEN REALITY FOLLOWS:
- More debt supply
- More pressure on yields
- Higher borrowing costs
- Tighter financial conditions
3. WHEN YIELDS RISE:
- Households pay more
- Companies slow investment
- Governments spend more on interest
- Growth weakens
- Risk increases
This is how financial stress builds quietly.
Not with one big crash, but with steady pressure.
We have seen this cycle before in 2000, 2008.
Different narratives, same structure.
Short-term relief, followed by tightening and market reversals.
Retail investors usually buy during the optimism phase.
When liquidity tightens, leverage gets wiped, and late buyers pay the price.
Just remember this when yields stay high and markets start breaking again.
A lot of people will wish they followed me sooner.
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