Bitcoin has not rallied despite a significant $18.5 billion Federal Reserve overnight repo operation and a private credit fund halting investor redemptions, signals that suggest stress in the US financial markets. The repo spike is identified as a one-day technical event rather than a sustained liquidity injection, while the redemption freeze reflects liquidity premia pressures rather than a systemic credit crisis. Ongoing outflows from US Bitcoin ETFs and Bitcoin's positive correlation with the Nasdaq indicate that Bitcoin currently trades like a risky asset rather than a safe haven, awaiting clearer signs of easing monetary policy to trigger a recovery.

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