Bitcoin ($BTC ) is showing structural signs of entering a new bear market as of February 19, 2026, with several critical on-chain metrics flashing red. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has compressed into the 1–2 range a zone historically associated with early bear phase transitions signaling that realized losses are beginning to dominate market activity. This technical fatigue is echoed by a sharp decline in network participation, with new BTC addresses down 47% and active addresses down 42% compared to levels from five years ago. Currently defending a thin support line at $66,550, Bitcoin faces a potential slide toward $60,000 if the prevailing downtrend remains intact.
Capital Fatigue: The Realized Profit/Loss Compression
The dynamic of capital rotation within the Bitcoin network suggests that the recent bull-market euphoria has officially stalled.
Ratio Stagnation: The 90-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has fallen toward 1. Historically, a durably healthy market requires this ratio to stay above 2. The current compression indicates that profit-taking has subsided, and liquidity is no longer rotating efficiently through the ecosystem.
Transition Zone: Analysts warn that if this ratio fails to reclaim levels above 2, the market bias will remain tilted toward a "prolonged bearish environment" characterized by low volatility and stagnant prices.
Network Erosion: A 47% Decline in Onboarding
While Bitcoin's price has shown some resilience, the underlying network health presents a more concerning divergence.
Drop in Participation: Unique active addresses have plummeted by 42%, and new wallet creation has fallen by 47%. Healthy bull cycles are typically defined by expanding user participation; this "organic demand" is currently missing.
Speculative Exhaustion: The decline suggests that retail interest is fading and the market is currently being sustained by existing participants rather than a fresh influx of new capital.
Price Roadmap: Defending $66,550 and the $54,920 Floor
Bitcoin is navigating a complex technical landscape where failure to hold current levels could trigger a multi-month correction.
Immediate Support: The $66,550 level is the absolute "line in the sand" for bulls. A breakdown here would likely target the $60,000 psychological support, with further risk exposure reaching down to $52,775.
The Realized Price Anchor: Bitcoin’s Realized Price currently sits at $54,920. Historically, sustained breaks below this benchmark have confirmed the onset of long-term bear markets.
Bullish Invalidation: To cancel the bearish narrative, BTC needs to rebound decisively past $71,693 and reclaim the 20-day EMA. A confirmed move beyond $80,000 would be required to restore long-term investor confidence.
Essential Financial Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Reports of Bitcoin entering a new bear market and the 47% decline in new addresses are based on on-chain data from Glassnode and Santiment as of February 19, 2026. On-chain metrics like the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio and Realized Price are probabilistic indicators and do not guarantee future performance. Bitcoin remains a high-risk asset subject to extreme volatility; the $66,721 valuation is subject to rapid shifts and could lead to significant capital loss if the $66,550 support fails. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making significant investment decisions in Bitcoin or digital assets.
Do you think the 47% drop in new addresses is a "death cross" for the bull run, or is Bitcoin just taking a breather before a push to $80k?
