🧵 The Good, the Bad… and the Ugly: OBBBA Edition 🚀 Debt Bomb & ₿ Shadow Play

$4T debt, missed crypto relief, and ₿ lurking in the shadows

1️⃣ July 4, 2025
Donald Trump signs the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

GOP: “Big Beautiful!”
Democrats: “Big Ugly!”
Markets: “How much are we paying now?”

₿ is lurking. 👀

2️⃣ The Good

Tax cuts for families

Tips/overtime non-taxable

Defense & border boosts

Corporate wins

Cash in your hands today, problems in the future. 💸

3️⃣ The Bad

Cuts to Medicaid/SNAP

Green energy subsidies gone

Student loan support reduced

Missed de minimis exemption for crypto

Reality check: 8/10 missed opportunity ⚰️

4️⃣ The Ugly (₿ edition)

Debt explodes:

Net deficit: ~$4+ trillion

Debt: 101% → 120% of GDP

More debt → political pressure → liquidity drama → ₿ eyes widen.

Short term: TGA refill = liquidity drain
Long term: debt > gdp? Fiscal spiral
Printer on? ₿ smirks.

5️⃣ Silent Crypto Wins

GENIUS Act → stablecoins legit, 100% reserves, full disclosures.

CLARITY Act → SEC/CFTC split, DeFi safe harbors, clarity for digital commodities.

Tax relief missed? Yes.
Regulatory foundation laid? Also yes. 🏗️

6️⃣ Gambling Tax Plot Twist

Win $1000, lose $1100? Tax on phantom $100 remains.

Traders 😐
Poker players 😐
Prediction markets 😏

Kalshi, Polymarket, Augur: Regulatory arbitrage window = $$$

7️⃣ Beautiful vs Ugly (and ₿)

Beautiful: corporations, wealthy, defense, tips/overtime
Ugly: social safety nets, green energy, missed de minimis

For ₿? Neutral-to-Bullish.
Not a paradise. Not a disaster. Just a shadowy hedge. 🔥

8️⃣ Takeaway

OBBBA isn’t the end of the dollar.
It’s a dark step toward higher debt.

Questions:

How long will debt stay below gdp?
Who pays the bill if not?
Are you in Treasuries or already watching ₿?

₿ waits. Silent. Ugly. Opportunistic.
#OBBBA #crypto #bitcoin #FiscalPolicy #PredictionMarkets