#bitcoin
📉 Bitcoin at $30,000 due to quantum threat?
A recent report by Charles Edwards (Capriole) has shaken up the crypto community. The main thesis: if $BTC does not start implementing a quantum-resistant upgrade, its price could fall by half next year.
🧠 What is the essence of the problem?
This is not about quantum computers breaking the network tomorrow. This is about the "quantum discount". Investors are starting to build risks into the price now, since the upgrade of such a massive network as Bitcoin can take years.
Key figures from the report:
• $30,000 — price forecast for 2027 without progress in the development of protection.
• 2030 — 60% probability of the appearance of a quantum computer capable of breaking current cryptography.
• 20-30% of coins at risk are old wallets (P2PK) where public keys are exposed. This is approximately $282–423 billion that could become vulnerable.
🛠 Is there a solution?
Developers are not sitting idly by. The BIP 360 proposal (a type of P2MR exit) is already being discussed, which is the first step towards a post-quantum signature.
However, there is a "but": Edwards proposes a radical "Dead man's switch" mechanism - freezing coins that have not switched to new standards for a certain period of time. This contradicts the philosophy of "not your keys - not your coins" and can split the community.
⚠️ Conclusion for investors
Edwards believes that Bitcoin is currently undervalued by 30% (a fair price of about $120k without taking into account risk).
