Bitcoin is stuck in a range and running out of tailwinds, with on-chain and derivatives signals pointing to continued downside risk. Price action and selling pressure Bitcoin has struggled to clear the $68,009 resistance in recent sessions and was trading near $68,085 at the time of reporting. One key metric underpinning the cautious outlook is the Buy/Sell Pressure Delta from Alphractal, which shows sell-side pressure outweighing buys. In plain terms, more selling volume than buying volume has kept upward moves muted; until the Delta moves toward neutral or turns positive, downside pressure is likely to persist (Alphractal). Founder Joao Wedson warns that short-lived rebounds won’t be convincing without confirmation from the Buy Delta: “Until then, bears still maintain control over the price, and if this pressure continues, price is likely to decline further in the coming months. Even if temporary rallies occur at 72k, 74k, or 75k.” His point: spikes up won’t be sustainable while selling dominance remains. Leverage and liquidation risk Another near-term headwind is a dense liquidation cluster around the $69,000 zone identified by Alphractal. Liquidation maps show where leveraged positions concentrate and are most vulnerable to forced closes—levels that can amplify volatility when price approaches them. With Bitcoin sitting below that cluster, the $69k area could act as a short-term sell-side barrier; if price pushes into the cluster, a wave of liquidations could provoke a sharp rejection. Derivatives volumes show waning conviction. CoinGlass data indicates Futures volume has dropped 48% to $31.97 billion and Options volume is down 59% to roughly $992 million. A decline in derivatives activity during modest price advances typically signals weak buying conviction, increasing the odds that rallies will struggle to hold (CoinGlass). On-chain distribution shifts Amid these structural and liquidity headwinds, on-chain data reveals a quieter, longer-term development: a gradual redistribution of BTC supply. Network Distribution Factors (NFD) from Alphractal show the top 0.01% of addresses shrinking their share while smaller wallets pick up more coins. This behavior—large holders trimming positions and smaller addresses accumulating—often follows extended bull cycles and can coincide with subdued price action as supply redistributes. What this means - Short term: Sell-side dominance in the Buy/Sell Delta and a nearby liquidation cluster leave Bitcoin vulnerable to renewed downside or volatile chop around $69k. - Market conviction: Falling futures and options volumes point to weaker leverage-driven momentum for any push higher. - Longer term: Supply redistribution from large holders to smaller wallets could signal accumulation at lower velocity, but may also extend subdued price dynamics until rebalancing completes. Sources: Alphractal, CoinGlass. Reporting by AMBCrypto. This content is informational only and not investment advice; crypto trading carries high risk—do your own research. © 2026 AMBCrypto Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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