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BlackCat Trading Mindset
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BTC STH SOPR Breakdown — Structural Weakness, Not Panic
The STH SOPR (90DMA) just slipped below 1.0.
That level matters.
When SOPR is above 1.0, short-term holders are realizing profits.
When it falls below 1.0, they’re realizing losses.
Right now:
• STH SOPR (90DMA): ~0.985 — declining
• STH SOPR (7DMA): ~0.985 — confirming weakness
• STH SOPR (365DMA): ~1.00 — neutral but rolling over
• Loss zone dominance since early 2026
This isn’t a single liquidation event.
It’s a behavioral shift.
What This Actually Means
Recent buyers aren’t panic-selling in one violent flush.
They are exiting at a loss consistently.
That distinction matters.
Capitulation is fast and emotional.
Structural bleed is slow and methodical.
When the 90-day moving average stays below 1.0, it signals that over a full quarter, short-term participants are distributing at a loss.
That creates overhead supply.
Every bounce becomes an exit opportunity.
Historical Context
The last time this structure sustained below 1.0:
• 2018 bear market onset
• 2022 macro breakdown
In both cases, it marked transition — not necessarily the exact bottom, but the confirmation that momentum had flipped.
Why the 365DMA Still Matters
The 365DMA hovering near 1.0 tells us the annual structure hasn’t fully broken.
Longer-term holders aren’t broadly underwater.
But if the 90DMA continues dragging the annual average lower, that macro stability erodes.
Short-term behavior often leads longer-term deterioration.
The Real Issue
There is no visible demand shock.
No strong absorption phase.
No explosive reclaim of profit territory.
No sharp reversal in realized behavior.
Until the 90DMA:
• Reclaims 1.0
• Holds above it
• Shows sustained profit realization
Short-term holders remain a structural headwind.
This isn’t dramatic.
It’s worse in some ways.
It’s quiet weakness.
And quiet weakness persists longer than panic.
$BTC #BItcoin #Crypto
{future}(BTCUSDT)
That level matters.
When SOPR is above 1.0, short-term holders are realizing profits.
When it falls below 1.0, they’re realizing losses.
Right now:
• STH SOPR (90DMA): ~0.985 — declining
• STH SOPR (7DMA): ~0.985 — confirming weakness
• STH SOPR (365DMA): ~1.00 — neutral but rolling over
• Loss zone dominance since early 2026
This isn’t a single liquidation event.
It’s a behavioral shift.
What This Actually Means
Recent buyers aren’t panic-selling in one violent flush.
They are exiting at a loss consistently.
That distinction matters.
Capitulation is fast and emotional.
Structural bleed is slow and methodical.
When the 90-day moving average stays below 1.0, it signals that over a full quarter, short-term participants are distributing at a loss.
That creates overhead supply.
Every bounce becomes an exit opportunity.
Historical Context
The last time this structure sustained below 1.0:
• 2018 bear market onset
• 2022 macro breakdown
In both cases, it marked transition — not necessarily the exact bottom, but the confirmation that momentum had flipped.
Why the 365DMA Still Matters
The 365DMA hovering near 1.0 tells us the annual structure hasn’t fully broken.
Longer-term holders aren’t broadly underwater.
But if the 90DMA continues dragging the annual average lower, that macro stability erodes.
Short-term behavior often leads longer-term deterioration.
The Real Issue
There is no visible demand shock.
No strong absorption phase.
No explosive reclaim of profit territory.
No sharp reversal in realized behavior.
Until the 90DMA:
• Reclaims 1.0
• Holds above it
• Shows sustained profit realization
Short-term holders remain a structural headwind.
This isn’t dramatic.
It’s worse in some ways.
It’s quiet weakness.
And quiet weakness persists longer than panic.
$BTC #BItcoin #Crypto
{future}(BTCUSDT)
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