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BlackCat Trading Mindset
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Data From 3 Bear Cycles: How Much Longer Until $BTC Finds a Bottom?
Every cycle feels unique in the moment.
But when you zoom out, momentum behaves in surprisingly repetitive ways.
I compared the last three major bear markets using the monthly Stochastic — not as a crystal ball, but as a higher-timeframe momentum gauge.
Right now, the monthly Stochastic sits around the 56th percentile and falling. That matters because historically, once momentum rolls over from this zone, the path toward deeper compression often continues.
What History Shows
From roughly the same momentum percentile in prior cycles:
• 2014–2015: ~396 days to reach the macro low
• 2018–2019: ~335 days
• 2022–2023: ~275 days
There’s a clear pattern:
Each bear cycle shortened by roughly 60 days.
If that structural compression continues, it suggests roughly ~200–220 days may remain before a comparable macro bottom forms.
That doesn’t mean price must follow that timeline — only that the momentum decay rhythm has been accelerating across cycles.
Important Clarification
Stochastic does not predict bottoms.
It confirms momentum exhaustion on a higher timeframe.
Historically:
• The strongest accumulation windows occurred when monthly Stochastic dropped below the 20th percentile
• Price often bottomed 2–4 months before the official momentum crossover
• Structural bases formed before sentiment shifted
Momentum confirms.
Structure leads.
What This Implies
If the pattern rhymes:
A potential macro bottom window could develop sometime in the mid-year zone — assuming no major black swan event accelerates or distorts the cycle.
But price alone isn’t enough.
What I’m watching for:
• A clearly defined accumulation range
• Volatility compression
• Diminishing sell pressure
• Monthly Stochastic approaching sub-20 territory
That confluence matters more than a specific dollar level.
Current Positioning
I’ve accumulated some spot exposure.
There are buy orders staged lower — including around the $50K region — but levels are secondary.
The real trigger is structural confirmation.
The Bigger Truth
No one knows the exact bottom.
Not analysts.
Not influencers.
Not even those who’ve navigated multiple cycles successfully.
But markets leave footprints.
Momentum weakens before reversal.
Liquidity dries before expansion.
Sentiment collapses before rebuilding.
Every cycle tells a story.
The question is whether you’re reacting emotionally — or reading the structure patiently.
$BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto
{future}(BTCUSDT)
But when you zoom out, momentum behaves in surprisingly repetitive ways.
I compared the last three major bear markets using the monthly Stochastic — not as a crystal ball, but as a higher-timeframe momentum gauge.
Right now, the monthly Stochastic sits around the 56th percentile and falling. That matters because historically, once momentum rolls over from this zone, the path toward deeper compression often continues.
What History Shows
From roughly the same momentum percentile in prior cycles:
• 2014–2015: ~396 days to reach the macro low
• 2018–2019: ~335 days
• 2022–2023: ~275 days
There’s a clear pattern:
Each bear cycle shortened by roughly 60 days.
If that structural compression continues, it suggests roughly ~200–220 days may remain before a comparable macro bottom forms.
That doesn’t mean price must follow that timeline — only that the momentum decay rhythm has been accelerating across cycles.
Important Clarification
Stochastic does not predict bottoms.
It confirms momentum exhaustion on a higher timeframe.
Historically:
• The strongest accumulation windows occurred when monthly Stochastic dropped below the 20th percentile
• Price often bottomed 2–4 months before the official momentum crossover
• Structural bases formed before sentiment shifted
Momentum confirms.
Structure leads.
What This Implies
If the pattern rhymes:
A potential macro bottom window could develop sometime in the mid-year zone — assuming no major black swan event accelerates or distorts the cycle.
But price alone isn’t enough.
What I’m watching for:
• A clearly defined accumulation range
• Volatility compression
• Diminishing sell pressure
• Monthly Stochastic approaching sub-20 territory
That confluence matters more than a specific dollar level.
Current Positioning
I’ve accumulated some spot exposure.
There are buy orders staged lower — including around the $50K region — but levels are secondary.
The real trigger is structural confirmation.
The Bigger Truth
No one knows the exact bottom.
Not analysts.
Not influencers.
Not even those who’ve navigated multiple cycles successfully.
But markets leave footprints.
Momentum weakens before reversal.
Liquidity dries before expansion.
Sentiment collapses before rebuilding.
Every cycle tells a story.
The question is whether you’re reacting emotionally — or reading the structure patiently.
$BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto
{future}(BTCUSDT)
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