Altcoin season is not cancelled, it is being delayed by fear and macro chaos. While the Binance Fear & Greed index sits in “Extreme Fear” at 11, retail is rage‑quitting after getting wrecked on 2024–2025 alt pumps and memecoins, exactly when smart money historically starts accumulating quietly.
This kind of sentiment capitulation is happening against a wild macro backdrop: President Trump is pushing aggressive tariff rhetoric, global banks like JPMorgan keep warning about systemic risk, and Middle East tensions keep U.S. forces deployed near Iran’s borders. Each headline reinforces the same reflex: flee risk, dump volatility, stack cash. In crypto that usually means panic selling alts into $BTC and $USDT right before the real rotation begins.
If you zoom out, the data on Binance tells a different story: during the latest $BTC dump from the high 60Ks, many majors and quality alts have started holding relative strength instead of nuking to new lows. That is classic early‑cycle behavior before dominance rolls over. Combine extreme fear, geopolitical stress, and still‑strong on‑chain narratives in AI, L2 and DeFi, and you get the recipe for a stealth accumulation phase – not the end of altcoins.
The uncomfortable truth is that the best alt runs usually start when everyone loudly declares “alts are dead” and walks away. Traders who survived this drawdown with dry powder, a clear watchlist and strict risk management will be the ones buying the despair of 2026, while the crowd waits for “confirmation” on green candles that never pull back.