People often focus on price, yet duration under water tells a deeper story. $BTC
This chart tracks how many days Bitcoin holders spend in a net loss position across cycles. When that number expands sharply, it reflects prolonged pressure, widespread cost basis compression, and eventually capitulation. #TrumpStateoftheUnion
Look at the previous peaks in 2012, 2015, 2018 and 2021. Each major bull market was followed by an extended period where investors remained below their entry. Those clusters of loss days coincided with structural bear phases and, historically, long term accumulation zones.
What is different now is the compression. The recent loss period is comparatively shallow. Either market structure has evolved through ETF flows and institutional liquidity, or the system has not yet experienced a full scale stress reset.
This metric does not predict direction. It contextualises cycle maturity ➟ the longer participants stay in loss, the higher the probability that weak hands are flushed and stronger bases form. #StrategyBTCPurchase
Price moves headlines. Time in loss reveals conviction.
