$BTC — A $23K bet taking aim at Fed extremes.

While markets are heavily pricing in no rate change for the January 28 Fed meeting, one newly created wallet is clearly playing a very different game.

The wallet deployed $23,000 across three low-probability, high-impact outcomes on Polymarket: • 25+ bps rate hike

• 25 bps rate cut

• 50+ bps rate cut

Any single hit turns this into a massive asymmetric win. Estimated payouts range from roughly $1.27M, to $2.01M, and up to $5.64M if the most aggressive cut lands.

This isn’t a consensus trade — it’s a pure convexity play. A direct bet against the market’s expectation of Fed inaction, where risk is capped and upside is explosive.

The question now isn’t about probability, but intent.

Is this a well-informed conviction taking advantage of mispriced odds… or just a calculated tail-risk lottery ticket ahead of the Fed decision?

Either way, it’s a bet worth watching

#ClawdBotSaysNoToken #USIranStandoff #USIranStandoff #FedWatch #Mag7Earnings