FOMC Decision — What to Watch and what to pay attention after decision on fomc meeting

Fed rate call drops with markets pricing 95.6% odds for no change (holding 3.50-3.75%range) vs just 4.4% cut chance. January feels procedural, but Powell's tone, dot plot, and vote split carry real weight.

Next rate cut? Markets bet on June.

👍Lets take a look BASE CASE: Status quo holds

Resilient economy (above-trend growth, sticky inflation >2% target, tight labor market) gives Fed zero urgency. Expect "wait-and-see" through spring.

😡HAWKISH TURN:
Persistent inflation talk + tariff/fiscal risks dominate. Labor market barely mentioned. Hints at just 1 cut (or none) in 2026 = stronger USD, delayed easing bets.

😇DOVISH LEAN:
Inflation cooling + labor risks rising + demand softening acknowledged. Any "transitory pressures" or "balanced risks" language signals June prep work — March cut odds spike immediately.

Powell Speech Red Flags:

Inflation framing: "transitory" vs "persistent"

Dual mandate priority: inflation control or jobs?

2026 cuts outlook: 1 vs 2+

Phrases like "no rush," "data-dependent," or "premature victory"

FOMC Vote Drama:
1+ dissenters = committee fracture → volatility surges on next data prints.
Unanimous = full comfort with current policy stance. $BTC

#BTC