$XRP Under Pressure: Oversold Signals Flash Amid Institutional Caution
XRP begins February 2026 under significant strain, having declined 16% in late January and now trading near $1.62, below the key $1.70 resistance. While institutional outflows have been severe, on-chain metrics suggest loss saturation may be setting the stage for a technical rebound—if critical support holds.
Institutional Sentiment Sours:
Record Outflow: On January 29, XRP ETFs saw $92.92 million in outflows, their largest single-day withdrawal to date, amplifying that session’s 9% price drop.
Flows Remain Fragile: A brief inflow of $16.79 million on Friday was quickly offset by renewed outflows this week, indicating institutional confidence remains shaky.
On-Chain Capitulation Signals:
STH-NUPL has fallen to -0.38, its lowest level since July 2022, reflecting extreme unrealized losses among recent buyers.
Historically, such loss saturation reduces sell-side pressure, often preceding a relief rally when combined with oversold technicals.
Technical Outlook:
Oversold Conditions: The Money Flow Index (MFI) is near oversold levels, a setup that previously triggered 14% rallies within 48 hours.
Recovery Path: A decisive close above $1.70 could catalyze a move toward $1.79.
Risk Scenario: Failure to hold $1.54, and subsequently $1.47, would invalidate the rebound thesis and likely extend the monthly downtrend.
Market Question:
Is the current zone a strategic accumulation opportunity, or will institutional withdrawal pressure drive XRP below $1.50?
