Danita Madson CRkT

Bitcoin is down 50% from its all-time high, and the price is still struggling to catch a bid. Let’s break down the higher timeframes to see where we are and what we can expect next.
BTCUSD (Monthly)

The monthly chart has been in an uptrend since the $16K bottom. The last higher low was formed around $74K, and the price is currently trading below it. A monthly close below $74K would break the bullish structure on the monthly timeframe.

Historically, every time Bitcoin has broken its monthly trend, the price has dropped another 40%–45%. Am I saying it will happen again? Of course not. But this is what has happened in the past.
BTCUSD (Weekly)

Bitcoin has been forming lower lows and lower highs on the weekly chart. That means the weekly trend remains bearish unless Bitcoin manages to shift its market structure.
As long as Bitcoin stays below the $95K–$97K range, the weekly trend will remain bearish. I know $97K is far from the current price, but this is a higher-timeframe structure, and Bitcoin sold off very aggressively, leaving the lower high this far away.
BTCUSD Weekly (A Different Perspective)

Bitcoin is currently trading around its 2024 highs. This zone acted as resistance for several months. You might have heard the concept in technical analysis: resistance can turn into support, and support can turn into resistance.
We are applying the same theory here. If Bitcoin manages to flip this zone into support, we could see a short-term move to the upside.

If Bitcoin turns this area into support, we may see a move toward the $76K–$78K zone, maybe even higher if there is enough momentum behind it.
But remember, even if Bitcoin moves up from here, it changes nothing in the bigger picture. The overall trend would still remain bearish.
BTCUSD (Daily)

The daily chart is also in a clear downtrend giving no hopes to bulls.
The Trade Plan
We discussed above that if bitcoin managed to flip that $66k zone into support we may see a move up. But there is a big difference between predicting a price and executing a trade.

For a trade setup, It is a waiting game for now.
The $71K–$72K zone has been continuously rejecting price on the lower timeframes. If Bitcoin manages to break above it and hold, I think this could open the door to the targets we discussed earlier.
Important Note
Monthly chart: bearish
Weekly chart: bearish
Daily chart: bearish
If Bitcoin fails to hold it should not be a surprise because every timeframe is bearish right now. If you’re expecting the price to go up or taking a counter-trend trade, remember: the chances of being wrong are very high because you’re fighting the trend.
I usually share two trade scenarios: a breakout trade and a pullback trade. Right now, I don’t have a pullback scenario. I want to see a lower-timeframe trend shift before I can be confident that it might be the right time.
The best trade is always the one taken in the direction of the trend.

Good luck & Stay Safe

Whether you’re new to the market or someone experienced, one thing you should know the crypto market tends to trend. By trending, i mean that if the market is moving upward, it will continue to do so, and if it's moving downward, it will keep heading lower. Trading in a trending market is generally easier compared to a ranging market.
What is an uptrend market? (Bull Market)
To identify a trend it's always better to start from the high timeframes because it doesn't matter what's going on in the lower timeframe it will end up going into high timeframe direction. That means you can use the lower timeframe price action to execute on your high timeframe setup.
The best timeframe is 1Day and weekly chart.
Now let's have a look at how bullish trend looks like

When the trend is bullish you will see price is continuously creating higher highs and the higher lows. This is an indication that the trend is bullish.
Now lets have a look at Bitcoin live chart.

Looking at the chart I’ve added, note that since Bitcoin’s bottom around 16,000, it has only formed higher lows, and there was no confirmation or indication of a trend shift until Bitcoin broke below 107k, which was its last higher low. So, even if someone didn’t buy at the bottom and entered around 30k or 45k, as long as the trend remained bullish, the upward movement continued until it broke at 100k. This means that if you simply follow the trend and hold your position, your return on investment would still be good. For example, if you bought around 25k and exited once the trend broke near 100k, your ROI would still be impressive.

In addition, when the market is in an uptrend, if you’re a trader, the only thing you should focus on is looking for buy setups as long as the market remains bullish and the uptrend is intact.
What is Downtrend? (Bear Market)
As the same as bullish trend but in an opposite way

When the price is creating lower highs and the lower lows this shows the trend is bearish.
Now lets have a look at Bitcoin live chart.

In above live uptrend chart we discussed that Bitcoin’s uptrend broke at 107k, which means that once the uptrend breaks, the market shifts direction and heads into a bearish trend. So, if we note that since Bitcoin shifted at 107k, it then formed a lower high at 115k, and from there, the price dropped down to 76k, forming a series of lower lows and lower highs. This means that since 107k, Bitcoin hasn’t provided any proper buy setups on a higher timeframe.
This tells us two things:
First, if you are purely a buyer, then since 107k, Bitcoin hasn’t given any high-timeframe buy opportunities.
Second, if you are a trend trader, meaning you trade based on the trend, then what you get from Bitcoin is only short setups.
Just as we look for buy setups when the market is bullish, we look for short setups when the market is bearish. And when you trade in line with the market’s trend, your success rate is much higher because you’re moving with the market’s direction.

so we’ve covered both uptrends and downtrends. In crypto trading, it’s really that simple, in an uptrend, you just look for buy setups, and in a downtrend, you look for short setups. That’s all there is to it. If you stick to this approach on a higher timeframe, trust me, you don’t need anything more complicated. Going with the flow greatly increases your chances of making money. There’s no need to overcomplicate things just focus on the market trend.
I’ve given you real examples, so now you can evaluate and reflect on your own trading. Remember, if you’re buying in a downtrend, you’re going against the market, and if you’re selling in an uptrend, you’re also going against the market.
Avoid trading against the trend because that helps you sidestep unnecessary losses. Also, if you’re more of a swing trader, not jumping into trades unnecessarily will help you avoid many losses. When you trade with the trend, or wait for the trend to shift, you play your cards wisely.

Good Luck :)