btcusdt

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) reached (almost) its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) last week fastest than any other Bear Cycle before. At the same time, its 1W LMACD hit the same symmetrical level (blue) it did every time BTC completed the 1st Stage of the Cycle. Especially in the case of the (previous) 2022 Bear Cycle, it was around the same time the price came close to the 1W MA200 as well.
As this chart shows, the 4-year Cycle bottom occurs around when the 1W LMACD makes a Bullish Cross after its hits -0.21. We are still far from that. But what past Bear Cycles show is that when the 1W LMACD has hit the current level, Bitcoin takes at best the same amount of time to bottom as it did from the start of the Bear Cycle to the moment the LMACD hit the current level (blue Support). That was particularly the case during the previous (2022) Bear Cycle (was 27 weeks from High to LMACD contact, and another 27 weeks until the Cycle bottomed). The two Bear Cycles before it, bottomed in less time.
As a result, given that last week completed 17 weeks from the Cycle Top up until the LMACD contact, the Cycle could bottom in the next 17 weeks (based on that model). This suggests the first week of June 2026, while the 4-year Cycle suggests mid-September. So what do you think is more likely to happen? Could that be BTC's shortest Bear Cycle ever?
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To look at Bitcoin we have to focus on the short-term, we already looked at the weekly and monthly timeframes. I already showed you why a recovery now is unavoidable.

I know you don't like these really short-term analyses because the view, the perspective is just too narrow; but we've been going deep into the bigger price. Let's see what is happening daily and if this confirms our broader bullish bias.

The last move is the exact same as Ethereum. An ABC correction. First a steep decline, then sideways followed by a bearish continuation. This much calls for bullish action now.

After a move is completed the market tends to move the other way.

I think the most important candle to consider is 6-Feb. The same day that produced the lowest price in years, since October 2024, also recovered most of the losses and ended up closing green. The ensuing day there wasn't a bearish resumption, nor the next day nor today. Instead, the market is green.

This all points to the correction being over. It is the same that happened in April 2025, the end of the previous correction and the start of the bullish wave that ended with the $126,000 all-time high.

Looks like we will have a v shaped recovery. The "baseline level" is the previous trading range, now a resistance zone. Around this level there can be a reversal followed by another crash to end the bear market in the latter part of 2026.

The current move doesn't have to be a sudden rise, Bitcoin can take its time.

The signal that confirms a bear market, apart from the 4 consecutive months Bitcoin closed red, is the monthly MACD. You can see here the full analysis.

Once the chart becomes like this, there is no going back.

The good news is that we are getting a relief rally now —bullish. And the situation is similar to what I showed you with Ethereum.

Bitcoin recovered 6-February to peak at $71,725, the low was $60,000. The action is always happening at the top of the range, which is extremely bullish.

7-Feb. Bitcoin moved lower with the lowest point being $67,360. Today again, lower but all selling was quickly bought. The lowest point today was $68,308.

Notice how it is not possible for the market to push prices below $65,000 and how resistance continues to be challenged.

On a bearish continuation, we would see Bitcoin trading between $64,000 - $61,000, this isn't the case.

On a bullish move, Bitcoin would stay close to resistance making it weaker with each passing day. This is exactly what is happening.

On a bullish move, the smaller altcoins would start to grow really, really strong. Just today, many projects are high with two digits green, the first time since the correction low.

We have bullish signals coming from Bitcoin, Ethereum and the smaller altcoins. All this combined supports growth.

Truly, it is not a surprise, it is exactly what we have been expecting so, let it grow.  We will adapt to market conditions as the relief rally unravels.

Long-term: Up now, then big down followed by the accumulation phase—sideways trading at bottom prices. After the accumulation phase, late 2026, we get the start of the next market cycle... The best ever!

Stay true, stay live and alive, continue to trade.

Good opportunities come and go, the market will continue to fluctuate.

Whatever your plan, just make sure to always stay in the game. As time goes by, we gain experience. With this experience, we will achieve long-term financial success.

From the top to higher. There is no limit to how high we can go. Nothing can stop us. The difficult life experiences will only stimulate more and additional growth.

Thanks a lot for your continued support.

Namaste.

✅ Trade here on $BTC

$BTC
To look at Bitcoin, we need to focus on the short term; we have already looked at the weekly and monthly time frames. I have already shown you why the recovery now is inevitable.

I know you don't really like these short-term analyses because the vision, the perspective is very narrow; but we are digging deeper into the bigger price. Let's see what happens daily and if this confirms our broader positive bias.