$BTC is in a weak oscillation below the EMA20, with price action showing disordered consolidation after a decline, lacking a clear direction.
🎯 Direction: No Position
Market Analysis: Price is suppressed by EMA20 (~69560) at the 4H level, with RSI at 45 in a neutral weak area, not entering oversold territory. Key data contradictions: Funding rate slightly negative (-0.0001%) and OI stable, suggesting bears are not in control, but the buy/sell ratio (0.47-0.52) remains below 1, indicating active selling pressure. Deep imbalance reaches 96.42%, but buy orders are concentrated below the current price, resembling passive absorption rather than active offense.
Logic Hard Core: The current price (~68975) is at the midpoint of the recent oscillation range, with strong resistance above at EMA20 and the psychological level of 70000, and support below at the previous low of 67883. The price has not touched any key Fibonacci levels (like 0.382 or 0.5) or previous highs that convert to support. ATR reaches 1421, showing huge volatility, but currently undergoing a volume contraction, belonging to a chaotic phase of long and short battles.
Trading Plan: Refuse to open positions at the mid-price level. To go long, wait for price to pull back and stabilize in the demand zone of 67883-68322 (previous low + order block), accompanied by a buy ratio rising to above 0.55. To go short, the price needs to rebound to the supply zone of 69560-70000 and face resistance, with a decline in OI + positive funding rate. Currently, neither condition is met, with insufficient win rate; the best strategy is to stay out of the market and wait for direction.
Trade here 👇
$BTC ---
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