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What's good, crypto fam! 🚀

$XRP is at a critical juncture right now. Let me break down what's happening on the 1-hour chart and why the next move could be MASSIVE.

The Setup

XRPUSD is trading at $1.4609 after bouncing from the green support zone around $1.35-$1.40. We're seeing a potential ABC correction pattern playing out - price spiked to $1.50 (B), dropped to support (A), and now we're waiting to see if (C) wave takes us lower or if this is just reaccumulation before the next leg up.

The big question: Is this a healthy pullback before ATH push, or are we heading to $1.25?

Why This Setup Matters

Bounced cleanly from green support zone (A) - buyers defending
Volume equilibrium (Z-Score near zero) = calm before the storm
MASSIVE institutional news - Brad Garlinghouse on CFTC committee
XLS-85 Token Escrow live on mainnet - game changer for institutions
Aviva partnership for tokenizing real-world assets
BUT - XRP down 25.8% YTD, worst performance since 2023

The News is MIXED (Critical Context)

Bullish catalysts:

Brad Garlinghouse appointed to CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee - HUGE
XLS-85 Token Escrow launched on XRPL mainnet (Feb 12) - institutional DeFi ready
Aviva Investors partnership - tokenizing RWAs on XRPL
Ripple expanding presence in UK and Europe
Coinbase, Robinhood CEOs also on CFTC committee - crypto legitimacy
Token escrow = stablecoins, RWAs, institutional settlement on XRPL
0.2 XRP reserve per escrowed asset = supply lock-up potential

Bearish/Risk factors:

XRP down 25.8% YTD - worst return since 2023
Price fell from $2.40 yearly high to $1.14 low
Declining channel on chart - bearish structure
Futures Open Interest dropped from $10.94B to $2.26B - weak confidence
Zero ETF inflows on Thursday - institutional demand cooling
Volume Z-Score near zero = consolidation, not momentum
Analysts warning of potential drop to $1.15-$1.25

Key Levels I'm Watching

Resistance:

$1.50 - Recent high / Wave (B) top
$1.54 - Friday's high (key breakout level)
$1.78 - Major resistance zone
$2.10 - Psychological level / next cycle target
$2.40 - 2026 yearly high

Support:

$1.40 - Current support / green zone (A) - CRITICAL
$1.35 - Lower green zone boundary (must hold)
$1.25-$1.35 - Wave (C) target / green support zone
$1.15 - Analyst target / danger zone
$1.12 - Friday's low / major support

My Game Plan

Bullish scenario: If $XRP holds the $1.35-$1.40 green zone and breaks above $1.50 with volume, we could see a rapid move to $1.54, then $1.78. The institutional news is MASSIVE - Brad on CFTC committee + XLS-85 live = legitimacy + utility. If institutions start deploying capital on XRPL (as analysts suggest), XRP could rocket. Target: $2.10+ retest.

Bearish scenario: If we lose $1.35 support, the ABC correction completes with Wave (C) dropping to $1.25-$1.30 green zone. Break below $1.25 = danger zone, target $1.15-$1.12. The YTD performance is brutal (-25.8%), and weak ETF flows + declining OI suggest institutions are waiting. Volume equilibrium = no momentum yet.

Most likely scenario: I think we consolidate between $1.35-$1.50 for a bit longer while the market digests the institutional news. The XLS-85 upgrade is HUGE but takes time to show impact. Watch for volume spike - that's your signal. If we hold $1.40 = accumulation. If we break $1.35 = Wave (C) to $1.25.

The Bottom Line

I'm cautiously BULLISH on fundamentals but NEUTRAL on technicals. The institutional developments are incredible - CFTC committee, XLS-85 escrow, Aviva partnership. This is the kind of news that changes trajectories long-term.

BUT the chart is weak. Declining channel, poor YTD performance, weak volume. The market needs TIME to absorb the news and for institutions to actually deploy capital.

My bias: If $1.35-$1.40 holds = long to $1.78-$2.10. If $1.35 breaks = wait for $1.25 retest.

The $1.35-$1.40 green zone is the line in the sand. Watch it like a hawk.

What do you think? Reaccumulation before ATH push or ABC correction to $1.25? Drop your take! 👇

#Xrp🔥🔥 #analysis #TrendingTopic

Bitcoin is holding its ground this weekend. After Friday’s soft CPI rally, price keeps leaning into the same overhead zone around $70,300, and bids keep showing up above $65,000.
That detail matters more than the stall.
Last Sunday I framed $71,500 as the market’s checkpoint, the line that decides whether this bounce becomes a recovery or fades into another leg down. The logic stays the same, the level stays the same, and the market’s behavior underneath it looks different this time.
Bitcoin already lived through the violent part of this story. The crash down toward $60,000 left a long wick and a long memory. Since then, price has clawed back into the low $70,000s, and every push higher has forced the same question, is this rally rebuilding structure, or is it simply giving traders a cleaner place to sell?
The soft CPI print gave Bitcoin the kind of fuel it usually needs to test resistance with conviction. Price rallied, the chart brightened, and the market drifted into that familiar decision zone again.
Now it’s Saturday morning, liquidity is thinner, and the candles look like they’re hesitating around $70,300. On paper, this is where weak bounces often unwind, especially after a macro headline move. In practice, Bitcoin keeps refusing to give sellers the easy follow through.
That refusal is the setup.
A market that wants lower prices tends to show it quickly on a weekend. It slips through shelves, it hunts stops, it revisits the wick, and it turns every bounce into an exit ramp. This weekend has a different feel, the pullbacks keep getting caught, and the floor around $65,000 keeps holding even as price struggles to clear the next ceiling.
That kind of behavior fits a familiar phase in a damaged market, the part where price stops falling fast, starts moving sideways, and forces both sides to wait.
It also fits the human side of this cycle. Traders remember $60,000 as the panic candle. Long term holders remember the speed of the drop and the silence that followed. Newer investors remember how quickly confidence turned into liquidation.
When price holds above $65,000 after a CPI-driven pop, it gives the crowd something they rarely get after a shock, time.
The weekend floor is the real story, and $65,000 has turned into a barometer
Weekend price action strips markets down to their basics. The order book gets thinner, the headlines slow down, and the only thing that matters is whether buyers actually show up when the chart looks heavy.
Right now, they are showing up.
Bitcoin keeps pressing into the $70,000 area, it keeps bumping into $70,300, and it keeps backing off in slow motion. The important part sits underneath, each dip keeps finding support before it turns into a slide. That support is clustering around $65,000, and it is starting to feel like a line the market respects.
That matters because the last major reference point beneath it is the wick low near $60,000. That zone carries the kind of emotional weight that turns small pullbacks into big reactions. When price hovers in the high $60,000s and low $70,000s, the market starts asking whether another wick revisit is coming.

When price holds through a weekend, the market starts asking a different question, whether the wick already did its job.
A local bottom rarely arrives with a clean announcement. It usually arrives as a change in rhythm.
The rhythm shift looks like this, sellers push, buyers absorb, and price stops traveling as far on each wave. The chart starts building a range instead of building fear. The market starts trading time instead of trading distance.
That is why a stall at $70,300 can still read bullish in context.
A stall becomes valuable when it comes with resilience underneath. It turns resistance into a pressure test. It also turns support into a living level that everyone watches in real time.
It is also worth remembering how $71,500 fits into this.
Last week, Bitcoin kept knocking on that door, and each attempt ran out of oxygen. This week, the market is hesitating earlier, which often shows up when sellers try to defend sooner, and buyers keep stepping in anyway. That dynamic can lead to a breakout later, and it can also lead to more sideways frustration first, especially when traders keep trying to front-run the move
Sideways action has a strange reputation in Bitcoin, because people associate it with boredom. In reality, sideways often marks the most important negotiation in the whole move. It’s where leverage resets, where late sellers finally exit, where patient buyers accumulate, and where the market decides whether the next push has support behind it.
If Bitcoin keeps holding $65,000 while continuing to probe $70,300, the chart starts to look less like a failed bounce and more like a base forming under resistance. That base does not erase the larger cycle debate, but it does change the near-term path.
$71,500 remains the checkpoint, and $60,000 remains the scar tissue
The market still has a clear hierarchy of levels.
$71,500 remains the major checkpoint, because it has already rejected price multiple times since the crash. It is the line where traders decide whether the recovery has real acceptance above it, or whether the move stays trapped in the same band.
$70,300 matters today because it is where the market is stalling right now. It is also close enough to $71,500 to act like a pretest, a place where sellers try to lean early, and where buyers get a preview of how crowded the ceiling is.
$65,000 matters because it is the line Bitcoin keeps defending during thin weekend liquidity. It is the nearest shelf that keeps the chart from sliding into the emotional gravity of the wick.
Then $60,000 sits below everything as the scar tissue level. That wick low created a shared memory, and shared memories create reflexes. Traders tighten stops, holders feel tension, and the market becomes jumpier the closer price gets to that zone.
Bitcoin's sideways action reduces the immediate pressure from that memory. It also gives the market space to do something healthier, to trade sideways and rebuild structure.
This is where the broader cycle story still matters, because a local base can form inside a bigger bearish framework. The market can carve out a range, squeeze shorts, reclaim a level, and still face deeper stress later in the year when liquidity shifts, when risk appetite fades, or when macro conditions tighten again.
My $49,000 bear target still sits in that bigger picture. It remains a plausible destination later this year if the cycle continues to unwind and if risk drains out of the system again. That target belongs to the macro path, the kind of move that comes with fear returning, volatility expanding, and market plumbing showing stress.
Levels to watch, and what “bullish” looks like from here
This setup is simpler than it looks.
A bullish read in the near term looks like continued range building, price holding above key levels, and repeated pressure on $70,300 that eventually leads to another attempt at $71,500. It looks like dips that get bought quickly, and it looks like sellers struggling to push the market into a deeper unwind.
It also looks like patience.
A range can last longer than people expect, especially after a violent move. It can chop up both longs and shorts, and it can frustrate anyone who needs a clean narrative. That frustration often becomes fuel later, because it shakes out leverage and rebuilds a healthier base.
Here is the clean map for the week ahead.
$71,500, the major reclaim line, acceptance above it changes the tone and opens the higher bands.$70,300, today’s stall point, a sustained push above it increases the odds of a fresh $71,500 test.$70,000, the psychological hinge, a level that often decides whether dips stay controlled.$66,900, the mid band shelf, where momentum often resets and where weak moves often fade.$65,000, the weekend barometer, a level that keeps the local bottom thesis intact while it holds.~$60,000, the wick low memory zone, a revisit would likely bring speed and emotion back into the chart.$49,000, the larger cycle bear target, a later-year destination if macro stress returns and risk unwinds further.
What I’m watching when the market moves is also simple.
Speed, does Bitcoin slice through resistance or grind into it. Follow through, does price hold above reclaimed levels long enough for acceptance to form. Reaction, does the market defend support aggressively, or does it give it up in slow motion.
Saturday’s data point so far is clear. Bitcoin is stalling around $70,300, and it is holding above local lows through thin liquidity. That combination leans bullish for a local bottom and a sideways phase, because it suggests demand is active underneath, and sellers are running into absorption.
The bigger cycle still has room for another painful chapter later this year. The near term chart is printing a quieter signal, resilience after a shock.
Disclosure, this is market commentary, financial decisions require personal responsibility and appropriate professional guidance.
#BTC #MarketRebound $BTC #TrendingTopic

TL:DR
Bitcoin is finding a bottom but probably still has some downside. Strong hand are probably accumulating Bitcoin and especially alts.

Introduction
Bitcoin is flashing multiple accumulation signals. But this downtrend has been so gradual and lacking in volatility it barely feels like a bear market to me. Just like the last bull market didn't feel like a bull market to many people use to the traditional volatility of Bitcoin and crypto.

The Top chart
This is pretty simple.

The Weekly NVT is green. Every time its been green before bitcoin has been in a bottoming formation. The NTV is based on the quantity theory of money (QTM) and basically says bitcoin is undervalued at this price level given the number of transactions.
Price is below the slow-moving average of the Pi-Cycle Bottom. Pretty simple. The Pi-Cycle bottom was backwards engineered to find bitcoin bottoms and does a good job of at least finding the reversal structure when the fast MA crosses below the slow MA. Of course, in order for this to happen price has to be below both the fast and slow MA, like it is now.
Price is below the weekly Gaussian Channel. Strong hands grab crypto when bitcoin is below the gaussian channel

It is absolutely vital to recognize that both the Pi Cycle bottom hasn't flashed a bottom nor has the gaussian channel turned red. Since both of those have not happened yet its fair to assume we will have both more downside and longer time in the accumulation zone.

BTC Monthly Chart

Pretty simple. Strong hands accumulate when the D- is above the D+. We have fewer examples on this chart than our top chart but the signal is clear. We also easily see the Bollinger band width has reduced and price is close to finding support on the band. In previous bear markets price didn't touch the base of the band for support but it did the last bear market. So we might or might not see bitcoin touch the bottom of the band time around.

Chart experimental overload
The meat of the idea has already been articulated. But I have some other charts I am looking at and this is just for funsies to justify yolo'ing more money into alts.

ETHBTC
The least experimental chart. I have been posting on this since I recognized the double top years ago. Now we have an even bigger double bottom. Quite simply, so long as $ETH BTC is in this W pattern and hasn't reached the 1.618 I remain a macro bull on eth and alts. ETH$BTC will have times it might consolidate for years. I simply play the chart. It might stall at major fib levels and all time high. I will harvest profit.

bMonthly btcusd/silver
TBH bitcoin doesn't look like it is going to beat silver in the long run. It definitely looks like it is bouncing now. But its at a double top looking neckline to me as it comes out of a bearish rising wedge. I expect to see a bear flag develop at lower time frames.

ETHUSD/Silver

At Descending Triangle 1.618 Target. That's good enough for a bounce or a reversal.

Others.d/btc.d

Want an alt season? then others.d has to go up faster than btc.d And we see it finding support in this channel with a lot of hidden bullish divergence. I expect the price action to reverse at the 0.618 fibline of the channel or at the previous support of the head and shoulders neckline

others.d/silver
I was just experimenting with this chart and saw a pattern. I like patterns. This double top reached its target and now has hidden bullish divergence. And look at that green celery stick of a candle right on the 2.0 fib line.

I am riding others until I see that silver might reverse it (at the double top neckline).

Others/silver
One experimental chart lead to another. Others/silver looks like it might be creating a triangle it could break out of later. Even better if the triangle breaks out to the upside.

Others/Total3
This is another of my main alteason chart. Others is basically everything in the above the top 10 in marketcap. Total3 is everything but bitcoin and Ethereum. Altseason is really about everything above the top 10 going crazy. Crazier than the top 10 coins and definitely crazier than the top 2 coins.

Basically, bitcoin in accumulation and others/total3 painting a triangle suggest altseason is percolating. Waiting for a break out of the blue trendline.

Dxy+btc.d
Alt season generally needs a declining dollar index and dropping bitcoin dominance. So why not smash the two into one chart? Here we go, with a breakdown target. Now I don't have to check btc.d and dxy seperately (but I still do, of course).

Conclusion
I'm in alts. Way up the risk curve from the top 10.

Bitcoin in accumulation and silver pausing and reversing against alts gives permission for this. When BTC.d or BTC+DXY, or DXY or Silver start to show strength then I have to manage that by either rotating into btc or silver.

Sure its a bit complicated but that makes it fun.
#BTC #alcoinseason #TrendingTopic

Today’s chart says everything.
The Fear & Greed Index is at 11 — Extreme Fear.
BTC is trading around $68,853 with declining momentum and rising emotional pressure.
When sentiment hits these levels, the market usually isn’t rational — it’s reactive.
Let’s break this down properly.
What the Chart Is Telling Us
🔴 F&G Index: 11 (Extreme Fear)
💰 BTC Price: ~$68.8K
📉 Volume spikes during recent drop
📅 Date: Feb 14, 2026
Every major cycle shows the same pattern: When fear goes below 20, retail panic increases. But historically, this zone often becomes a high R:R accumulation area, not a chase-short zone.
That doesn’t mean bottom is confirmed. It means volatility expansion is near.
Technical Context
From the chart structure:
Previous support zones: $65K–$67KMajor psychological support: $60KResistance on bounce: $72K–$75K
Price is compressing while sentiment collapses. That divergence is important.
When price holds structure but sentiment collapses, smart money watches liquidity pockets — not headlines.
Two Scenarios From Here
🟢 Bullish Scenario
If BTC reclaims $72K with strong volume:
Short squeeze potentialSentiment reversal from 11 → 25 quicklyFast move toward $78K–$82K
Extreme fear rallies are usually sharp.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
If $65K fails:
Liquidity sweep toward $60KPossible wick under before recoveryPanic-driven final flush
That would likely push F&G into single digits.
What Smart Traders Do Here
They don’t trade emotions. They trade structure.
Extreme Fear historically:
Appears near local bottomsHappens during macro shakeoutsPrecedes volatility expansion
But entries must be structured. Blindly buying because “fear is low” isn’t a strategy.
My Take
This doesn’t look like euphoric distribution. It looks like stress compression.
When everyone is scared, liquidity forms.
The real move usually starts when fear peaks.
Stay patient. Watch reaction at $65K. Let the market confirm — don’t predict.
If you want, I can also:
• Turn this into a shorter viral Binance Square version
• Add structured entry/TP/SL levels
• Or convert it into a chart-style infographic post
#crypto #TrendingTopic