usjobsdata

The U.S. labor market posted a stronger-than-expected gain of 119,000 jobs in September, even as the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 4.4%, according to long-delayed government data released Thursday.The report — originally scheduled for early October — was pushed back six weeks due to the federal government shutdown, leaving markets without timely labor figures throughout a volatile period.What to KnowThe U.S. added 119,000 jobs, beating economist expectations of 50,000.The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, above the 4.3% forecast.The shutdown-delayed jobs report arrives as markets weigh fading Fed rate-cut odds.Bitcoin held modest gains around $91,900 following strong Nvidia earnings.Next up-to-date labor data will not be released until mid-December.Delayed Report Shows Labor Market Firmer Than ExpectedThe Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed nonfarm payrolls rising by 119,000 in September. Economists had projected 50,000, following a revised 4,000-job decline in August (originally reported as a 22,000 gain).However, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, suggesting a softening in labor-market conditions despite stronger hiring.The late release complicates the near-term economic outlook, as policymakers, analysts and traders lack fresh data heading into the Federal Reserve’s final 2025 meeting.Market Reaction: Bitcoin Holds Gains, Nasdaq Futures JumpBitcoin continued to hold its modest overnight lift, trading near $91,900 after Nvidia’s strong earnings and upbeat outlook calmed jittery markets late Wednesday.U.S. equity futures extended those gains:Nasdaq futures +1.9%S&P 500 and Dow futures higher10-year Treasury yield steady at 4.11%U.S. dollar index slightly strongerThe jobs report did not materially shift sentiment, as markets had already priced out a December rate cut.Fed Rate Cut Expectations Unlikely to ChangeTraders had largely eliminated the possibility of a December interest rate cut prior to the data release, citing:the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone in recent speechesuncertainty caused by missing labor-market dataconcerns about inflation persistenceThursday’s numbers — strong on payrolls but weaker on unemployment — are unlikely to alter those expectations.With no updated employment report arriving until mid-December, the Fed will go into its final 2025 meeting with only partial visibility into labor conditions.OutlookThe September report offers a backward-looking snapshot of a labor market that remains resilient but is showing signs of cooling at the margins. Markets now await the next batch of timely data, though it may arrive after key policy decisions are already made.For now:hiring is strongerunemployment is risingand the Fed’s December calculus remains unchangedCrypto and equities continue to take signals primarily from earnings strength, tech momentum and shifting rate expectations rather than delayed economic data.

US CPI Data Update (January 2026)
The latest US CPI (Inflation) data has just been released, and the results are better (lower) than expected. This indicates that inflation is cooling down, which is generally a positive signal for the crypto market
1. Key Figures at a Glance

2. Impact on Bitcoin & Crypto
The market showed an immediate reaction to these numbers:
Positive Momentum: Bitcoin (BTC) saw a slight recovery pump immediately after the data release.
Dollar Index (DXY) Drop: Since inflation came in lower than feared, the US Dollar Index (DXY) weakened. Historically, a weaker Dollar leads to a stronger Bitcoin.
Shift in Sentiment: Investors are now hopeful that the Federal Reserve might pause interest rate hikes or even consider rate cuts, which is a "Bullish" sign for risky assets like crypto.
3. Potential for "Altseason" (Dominance Check)
Currently, Bitcoin Dominance is hovering around 59%.
If BTC stays stable (moves sideways) following this CPI news and its dominance begins to fall, it often triggers an Altcoin Season.
In this scenario, Small-Cap and Mid-Cap coins can easily see 10% to 20% jumps in a single day.
4. Key Categories to Watch
In a "Risk-On" environment created by positive macro data, these sectors usually move first:
AI Coins (e.g., $NEAR, $RNDR): These are highly volatile and tend to react quickly to market hype.
Layer 1 & Layer 2 $ETH , $SOL , $MATIC : These usually follow Bitcoin’s lead almost immediately.
Memecoins like $doge, $PEPE: These gain the most momentum when retail investors feel "greedy" again.
5. What’s Next for BTC?
While the data is positive, the market is still navigating high volatility:
Key Resistance: BTC needs to break and hold above $68,000 to confirm a trend reversal. The next major targets are $70,000 and $72,000.
Support Level: Despite the good news, keep an eye on the $66,000 support. If selling pressure from ETFs continues, we might still see some sideways movement.
#CPIWatch #TrumpCanadaTariffsOverturned #USRetailSalesMissForecast #USJobsData #USNFPBlowout

When Rate-Cut Odds Fall to 7%, the Market Is Speaking Loudly
When the probability of a rate cut drops to 7%, it isn’t just another data point on a screen.
It’s a message.
And the message is clear:
No rate cut anytime soon.
Why Did Expectations Shift So Fast?
For months, markets were positioned for an early start to a monetary easing cycle. Traders priced in fast relief — lower rates, cheaper liquidity, and easier financial conditions.
But reality intervened.
Recent economic data — from inflation prints to labor market strength — forced a sharp reassessment:
Inflation remains above target
Growth has not slowed enough
Employment conditions remain resilient
In short, the economy has not cracked.
And without real pressure, central banks have no urgency to act.
There simply isn’t enough justification to cut rates right now.
What This Means in Practice
This shift in expectations has immediate consequences across markets:
💵 The Dollar
“Higher for longer” supports the dollar. Elevated rates mean stronger yields, keeping dollar-denominated assets attractive relative to global alternatives.
📉 Equities
Volatility risk increases. A portion of the prior rally was fueled by the belief that rate cuts were imminent. As that assumption fades, valuations face pressure.
🥇 Gold
Gold may enter a consolidation or balancing phase. The metal reacts sharply to changes in monetary policy expectations, not just inflation itself.
The Bigger Picture: Risk Is Being Repriced
This isn’t just about March.
The real shift is psychological.
Markets don’t move based solely on decisions —
they move on expectations.
And when expectations change suddenly, capital reallocates fast.
The transition from “early cuts” to a “higher for longer” environment forces a repricing of risk across:
Equities
FX
Commodities
Credit markets
Liquidity assumptions change. Financing costs adjust. Risk appetite recalibrates.
The Real Question Has Changed
The debate is no longer:
Will rates be cut in March?
That door is effectively closed.
The real questions now are:
When will the first actual cut begin?
How many cuts will occur this year?
How long will restrictive policy persist before liquidity turns?
Because the next monetary policy cycle will define:
Global liquidity direction
Capital flows
Risk-on vs risk-off behavior
Final Thought
In markets, 7% means one thing:
March is no longer on the table.
But the cycle isn’t over.
It’s simply delayed —
and markets are adjusting to that reality in real time.
$BTC
$XAU

#CPIWatch #CZAMAonBinanceSquare #USRetailSalesMissForecast #USJobsData #USRetailSalesMissForecast #USTechFundFlows