📅 February 16 - United States | Bitcoin is once again teetering in the critical $70,000 zone. Despite US inflation showing signs of cooling, the market is failing to regain momentum and remains trapped between macroeconomic relief and structural fragility.
📖Over the past week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $360 million, while ether-linked products lost another $161 million. In total, crypto ETPs have seen approximately $3.7 billion withdrawn in four weeks, reflecting a prolonged institutional withdrawal.
Even Harvard reduced its exposure to Bitcoin ETFs by 21%, although it increased its ether position by $87 million, a sign of selective rotation rather than widespread risk appetite.
However, the spot price remains well below the average cost for short-term holders, close to $94,000, and also below the True Market Mean of around $80,100. This indicates persistent pressure on recent buyers.
At the same time, there is an increase in outflows from exchanges to large entities, a pattern similar to that observed in early 2022 before an expansionary cycle.
The real focus is on derivatives. A 10% upward move would liquidate approximately $4.3 billion in short positions, compared to about $2.4 billion in long positions if the move were downward. Bearish positions are more congested, increasing the likelihood of a short squeeze if sentiment changes. March's implied volatility hovers around 48, still well above pre-correction levels.
On the macro front, annual inflation fell to 2.4%, better than expected, while employment surprised with 130,000 new jobs, almost double the forecasts. This mix keeps the market in a state of tense equilibrium ahead of new Fed, GDP, and PCE data releases.
Topic Opinion:
There is fatigue, not panic. And when the market tires but doesn't capitulate, the next move is usually explosive.
💬 Do you think we'll see a short squeeze that pushes BTC above $75K?
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