arthurhayes

While many are waiting for growth from the halving, Arthur Hayes (co-founder of BitMEX) points to a more powerful and fundamental factor. His analysis is simple: Bitcoin's fate is decided not on price charts, but in the offices of the Federal Reserve. The new growth cycle will be triggered by a wave of US dollar liquidity, and Hayes sees it arriving in 2026.
Why Did Bitcoin Lag in 2025? The Answer is an "Expensive" Dollar.
Hayes gives a clear explanation for BTC's weakness last year. While gold and stocks rose, Bitcoin struggled. The reason was the Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT): reducing its balance sheet and draining dollars from the system. In a liquidity deficit environment, capital flees the riskiest assets, and Bitcoin is still in that category for traditional funds.
The 2026 Pivot: The Fed as the Main Growth Driver.
Now, according to Hayes, the pendulum has swung. To support the economy, the Fed will be forced to halt QT and start pumping liquidity into the system again (expanding its balance sheet). Here's how this will trigger a rally:
Cheap Money: The money supply will increase, and the cost of borrowing will drop.The Search for Yield: Institutions, sitting on piles of cheap dollars, will start looking for assets with maximum returns.Rotation into Crypto: A portion of this giant flow will rush into the lagging, but fixed-supply, Bitcoin. This won't be mere speculation, but a macro-driven liquidity flow.
What Needs to Align?
A clear pivot in Fed policy toward easing.An increase in bank lending to amplify the effect.A rotation of capital from overbought assets (like AI stocks) into undervalued BTC.
Risks to the Scenario:
The plan could fail if:
Inflation reignites, preventing the Fed from easing policy.An external macro shock occurs, causing panic.Traditional markets continue to attract all the liquidity.
The Bottom Line: Hayes reminds us of a simple rule: crypto markets are part of the global system. When the money printer turns on, the hardest and most digital assets are the first to soar.
What do you think? Do you believe Bitcoin's fate in 2026 is decided by the Fed, not by halvings or ETF flows? Share your opinion in the comments!
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BitMEX #ArthurHayes

Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, has just published an analysis that puts the clock back on track for early 2026.
If he's ultra-bullish, it's not by chance. For him, Bitcoin is going to "steal the juice" from Gold and the Nasdaq. Here's why:
1️⃣ The bill printer is going to heat up 💸
Hayes bets on the massive return of dollar liquidity. With the U.S. debt financing needs, the Fed will have no choice but to ease access to cash. And Bitcoin is the fastest vessel to absorb this flood of dollars.

Hayes expects Bitcoin's price to reach over $110,000 due to liquidity shifts.
The monetary tightening in 2025 has restrained Bitcoin's price performance.
The growth of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and mortgage-backed securities purchases are key driving factors.

Leveraged bets on MSTR and Metaplanet stocks are among Hayes's most important strategies.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has once again sparked debate across the crypto space, arguing that recent geopolitical developments surrounding Venezuela could act as a powerful catalyst for a sharp rise in Bitcoin’s price. According to Hayes, the U.S. intervention and detention of President Nicolás Maduro have created a near-perfect setup for another major crypto rally.
Hayes believes the United States could leverage the situation to effectively seize control of Venezuela’s oil reserves—or at least create the perception that it has done so. In his view, this would help push oil prices lower, keep U.S. inflation in check, and allow the Federal Reserve to continue expanding the money supply.
“As the amount of dollars in circulation keeps rising, the price of Bitcoin and selected cryptocurrencies will surge,” Hayes wrote in his latest blog post.

Monetary Expansion as the Engine of the Next Crypto Rally
While Hayes did not specify an exact price target in his most recent commentary, he previously stated in December that he expects Bitcoin to rally toward $200,000, potentially as early as March. His thesis rests on a combination of aggressive monetary expansion and political incentives.
According to Hayes, the U.S. administration must achieve two goals at the same time:

🔹 continue printing money

🔹 keep inflation low so voters feel financially secure
This combination, he argues, would improve Republican prospects in the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race.
“If inflation growth outpaces nominal GDP growth, voters can quickly turn against the ruling party,” Hayes warned.

Oil Prices as the Key Inflation Lever
The second pillar of Hayes’ argument centers on oil. He believes gasoline prices are the most visible and emotionally charged inflation metric for American households.
“In the U.S., you can’t function without a car. Fuel prices directly affect everyday life,” Hayes wrote.

From this perspective, increased pressure on Venezuela makes strategic sense: greater oil supply translates into lower energy prices and reduced inflationary pressure.
Lower inflation would, in turn, give the Federal Reserve more room to inject liquidity into the financial system—historically a favorable backdrop for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Hayes Is Not Alone in His View
Hayes is not the only market observer linking Venezuela’s situation to Bitcoin’s upside. Digital asset brokerage BlockByte recently echoed a similar outlook, suggesting that falling oil prices could significantly boost Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
From their standpoint, the combination of cheaper energy, loose monetary policy, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty could once again position Bitcoin as an attractive hedge against systemic risk.

Bold Predictions—and Past Misses
Arthur Hayes has built a reputation for making bold and, at times, remarkably accurate market predictions. However, his track record is not flawless.
At the start of 2025, Hayes predicted Bitcoin would reach $200,000 by year-end. Early signs supported his view, as Bitcoin hit new all-time highs following Donald Trump’s inauguration, fueled by optimism that the crypto industry had gained a powerful ally in the White House.
That momentum reversed sharply when Trump launched a global trade war, raising tariffs on major trading partners and injecting uncertainty into financial markets. Bitcoin plunged amid the volatility.
Hayes later revised his year-end target down to $150,000, but Bitcoin ultimately closed the year closer to $87,000.

Bottom Line
Hayes’ latest thesis once again frames Bitcoin as an asset that thrives at the intersection of:
geopolitical tensionexpansionary monetary policypolitical incentives to sustain economic optimism
Whether Bitcoin will ultimately climb toward $200,000 remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that macroeconomics and geopolitics continue to play a decisive role in shaping crypto market cycles.

#bitcoin , #BTC , #CryptoNews , #ArthurHayes , #CryptoPrediction

Stay one step ahead – follow our profile and stay informed about everything important in the world of cryptocurrencies!
Notice:
,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“

The businessman published an essay titled Suavemente ("Courtesy"), in which he referred to American politicians as "primarily thinking about re-election." According to the entrepreneur, inflation and the state of the U.S. economy are currently important to voters, and the most visible indicator is fuel prices.

$PENDLE hits $2.33 as Boros platform volume explodes and top influencers double down.
What's Happening:
Record Volume: Boros platform hits ATH open interest ($250M+); total notional volume $7B.Smart Money: Arthur Hayes pivots $5.5M into yield plays, including a major PENDLE buy.Institutional: Coinbase Prime sees $3.45M PENDLE inflow, signaling custody accumulation.Price: PENDLE up 6% to $2.33, eyeing $2.50.
Why It Matters:
Pendle owns the "yield trading" category. With interest rates fluctuating and crypto yields spiking, trading the yield itself is the next frontier. Arthur Hayes and Coinbase Prime positioning here validates the thesis.
Technical View:
Bullish momentum is accelerating. $2.30 is now support. The path to $2.60 is clear. Any dip to $2.15 is a buy opportunity for trend followers.
🎯 Key Levels:
Support: $2.22 | Resistance: $2.4524h Range: $2.25 - $2.38
💡 "Yield is the interest rate of the internet. Pendle is the central bank."
What's your take? Drop a 🔥 for bullish, ❄️ for bearish 👇
#Pendle #DeFi #YieldTrading #ArthurHayes #CryptoNews
Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR) before making any investment decisions.