Bitcoin (
$BTC ) has sharply fallen below the monthly EMA20, a level that historically carries major significance ⚠️
In past cycles, when price lost this monthly support, it often led to deep corrections of 40–50% from the EMA20 line.
Let’s look at the historical examples 👇
📜 HISTORICAL EMA20 BREAKDOWNS
🗓️ November 2018
BTC dropped from around $6,400 → $3,300
🗓️ March 2020
BTC fell from over $8,000 → $3,300
🗓️ April 2022
BTC declined from about $45,000 → $15,000
Now, in January 2026, BTC has already fallen from roughly $96,000 → $77,000 📉
Using a conservative estimate of a 40% correction, price could still revisit the $50,000+ zone 🎯
🪙⬇️ GOLD’S DROP DIDN’T SAVE BTC
Many believe Bitcoin is “digital gold” 🧠
Under that assumption, BTC should be negatively correlated with gold.
However, in the recent gold price collapse, BTC didn’t benefit at all ❌
Instead:
Gold fell 📉
BTC fell even harder 📉📉
Positive expectations failed to materialize and turned into negative pressure instead.
This suggests the market may currently view BTC as less reliable and more prone to selling during stress ⚖️
❓ SO… IS BTC ENTERING A FULL BEAR MARKET?
Is Bitcoin doomed?
Not necessarily ❌
There are still important counterarguments worth considering 👇
🔄 1️⃣ REVERSE CANDLESTICK INTERPRETATION
On the monthly chart, BTC has now fallen for four consecutive months, totaling nearly a 40% decline 📊
Historically:
Aside from 2018, it is extremely rare to see five straight monthly red candles
When it does happen, price is often near the bottom, not the start of a deeper crash 🧱
This behavior currently looks more like a major correction, not a total breakdown 🛠️
🏦😱 2️⃣ SHORT-TERM PANIC AFTER THE FED APPOINTMENT
The recent crash in gold appears tied to market panic following the appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chairman 📣
Markets often overreact to policy changes in the short term 😨
But panic fades.
In fact:
Multiple institutions have reaffirmed that the long-term case for gold remains intact 🪙
A strong rebound in gold could occur 📈
If that happens, BTC may find room for a reversal as well 🔁
🚀 3️⃣ THE 2021 PRECEDENT: A 50% DROP, THEN NEW HIGHS
History reminds us not to underestimate Bitcoin’s ability to surprise 🔥
In April 2021, BTC topped out and then:
Dropped nearly 50% 📉
Later rebounded to a new all-time high by October 2021 📈
That kind of rebound was unprecedented at the time — yet it happened.
Because of that, an extreme rebound scenario cannot be ruled out, even now 🧠
🧠 FINAL THOUGHTS
BTC losing the monthly EMA20 is serious ⚠️
Gold failing to support BTC adds pressure 😬
But:
Structural bottoms often form during maximum doubt 🐻
Prolonged corrections can still resolve bullishly 🐂
History shows BTC has recovered from worse setups 📜
📌 Whether BTC revisits $50K or begins building a base, calling the cycle “over” may still be premature.
Sometimes the market’s most uncomfortable phases are simply preparation for the next major move ⏳
#BTCMarketTrends #Binance #BitcoinETFWatch $BTC