JAPAN MARKET ALERT: The "Truss Shock" of 2026 🚨
Rumors are flying about a 6:50 PM ET "bond dump." Here is what is actually happening behind the headlines: $RIVER
1️⃣ The 6:50 PM ET Timing: This isn't a secret Bank of Japan (BoJ) attack. It is the weekly Ministry of Finance (MoF) report on "International Transactions in Securities." It tracks where private Japanese banks and insurers moved their money last week.
2️⃣ The "Dump" is Real, but it's Private:
Japanese institutional investors (the world’s largest creditors) are indeed liquidating foreign bonds (like US Treasuries). Why? Because the Japanese bond market is in a total meltdown.
10-year JGB yields: ~2.25%
40-year JGB yields: Nearly 4.0% Japanese banks are bringing cash home to "buy the dip" in their own backyard, effectively "dumping" foreign debt to fund the move.
$ARC
3️⃣ The "Takaichi Factor":
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s aggressive fiscal expansion pledges ahead of this Sunday’s (Feb 8) election have spooked the world. Markets fear Japan’s debt-to-GDP (already over 220%) is headed for a breaking point.
4️⃣ Is the BoJ involved?
Contrary to rumors, the BoJ is currently staying away. Sources indicate they are hesitant to intervene to lower yields because doing so would crush the Yen even further.
$ZKP ⚠️ THE BOTTOM LINE: Expect a massive "Net Sell" number in tonight’s report. It won't be a BoJ policy "dump," but it will confirm that the Japanese private sector is retreating from global markets to save itself at home.
#BankOfJapan #Takaichi #BondMarket2026