After spending over two decades studying macroeconomic cycles, Iāve learned to spot structural patterns in housing markets long before headlines catch up. From the 2008 crash to the liquidity surge of 2020, each major turning point left clear signals if you know where to look.
Hereās what the data is telling us today.
š Housing Prices Are Stagnant, Not Strong
In 2006, the housing bubble peaked near 266 on the real estate price index. Today, some markets sit at similar or even higher levels. This isnāt a sign of strengthāitās a sign of frozen pricing.
In 2006, the housing bubble peaked near 266 on the real estate price index. Today, some markets sit at similar or even higher levels. This isnāt a sign of strengthāitās a sign of frozen pricing.
š Mortgage Lock-In Masks Reality
Many homeowners are stuck with ~3% fixed mortgages. With current 30-year rates around 6.5%, moving is costly.
As a result:
Prices appear āstable,ā but transaction volume has collapsed.Liquidity has dried up. Illiquid markets donāt reflect true value. Buying now means locking in peak monthly payments on an asset that hasnāt been stress-tested by real market activity.
ā ļø The Risk of Buying Today
If youāre leveraged 5:1 on a property that stays flat while paying 6.5% interest, youāre not building wealthāyouāre slowly draining capital.
This is the structural trap many miss.
š® The Macro Outlook
Historical patterns suggest that the real reset often occurs during the fatigue phase: šļø Late 2026 ā 2027. š Life events force sales (relocation, retirement, divorce). š Economic growth slows. šø Affordability finally rebounds Thatās when true opportunities emergeānot during periods of artificial stability.
ā
Bottom Line: If youāre not very well capitalized, now is not the time to buy. Patience and timing will be far more profitable than chasing āstableā prices today.
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