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At one point, Trump’s strategy seemed straightforward: pressure Venezuela hard enough to cut China off from its oil lifeline. Sanctions tightened, exports collapsed, and the assumption was simple—without Venezuelan crude, China would feel the squeeze.
But geopolitics rarely moves in straight lines.
Instead of being cornered, China pivoted—straight into Canada’s backyard.
Canada, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, has vast reserves of heavy crude, particularly in Alberta. Interestingly, this oil is technically similar to Venezuelan heavy crude, making it an almost perfect substitute for Chinese refineries. For years, the problem wasn’t supply—it was logistics. Pipeline constraints meant Canada struggled to move its oil efficiently to global markets.

That changed in 2024, when the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion finally came online.
Here’s the irony: while the U.S. continued to pressure Canadian oil prices downward, China moved fast. As Venezuelan supply dried up, Chinese refiners didn’t hesitate. Tankers were redirected, and Canada quickly became the alternative source.
The timing mattered. Venezuelan oil stockpiles at sea could only buffer China for about two months. Once that window closed, Canadian crude filled the gap almost seamlessly.
Even more surprising was the math. Shipping oil from Canada to China takes around 40 days less than from Venezuela. When freight costs, delivery speed, and reliability are factored in, Canadian oil became competitive—even at slightly higher prices.
For Canada, the conclusion was obvious: China, though politically different, proved to be a more predictable and stable buyer.

In the end, a strategy designed to isolate China achieved the opposite. Trump’s pressure didn’t close China’s door—it opened a larger one. Today, China purchases nearly 40% of Canada’s seaborne crude, and pipeline shipments to China now rival—and in some cases exceed—those to the United States.
This is what a shift in global patterns looks like. Coercion may force short-term compliance, but long-term stability comes from aligned incentives and mutual benefit.
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