january2026

It has been exactly one year since Donald Trump’s inauguration. For the crypto industry, this was arguably the most volatile policy shift in history. We analyzed data from January 2025 (the peak of the hype) and compared it with the current reality of January 2026, specifically looking at how the new Trade Tariffs are impacting your portfolio.
📊 January 2025: The "Inauguration Pump"
Last January went down in history as a month of pure euphoria. The market priced in every campaign promise—from the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to the firing of Gary Gensler.
* ATH Record: On Inauguration Day (Jan 20, 2025), Bitcoin tapped an all-time high in the ~$109,000 - $111,000 range.
* Sentiment: The Fear & Greed Index was stuck in "Extreme Greed" (85+).
* The Narrative: Investors bought the "Crypto President" narrative blindly, expecting immediate deregulation.
> Key Takeaway 2025: The growth was driven by political anticipation, not necessarily network fundamentals. This set the stage for a classic "Buy the rumor, sell the news" year.
⚖️ The Tariff Tantrum: The New Reality of 2026
The biggest surprise for the crypto market in late 2025 and early 2026 wasn't crypto policy—it was Trade Policy. Trump’s aggressive tariffs (10-60% on various imports) have created a complex environment for digital assets.
How the Market is Reacting (Jan 2026 Data):
1. The Inflation Hedge Narrative Returns 🛡️
Tariffs have driven up consumer prices in the US. As inflation ticks up again, we are seeing renewed interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat debasement, similar to the 2021 era. While stocks (S&P 500) faced volatility due to trade war fears, BTC showed relative resilience.
2. The "Strong Dollar" Headwind 💵
However, tariffs usually strengthen the US Dollar (DXY). A strong DXY is historically bearish for crypto. We are currently seeing a tug-of-war: Bitcoin is fighting against a strong dollar, which is capping its ability to break new highs above $105k.
3. Supply Chain Shocks for Miners ⛏️
New tariffs on imported electronics have increased CAPEX for mining companies. The cost of upgrading ASICs has jumped by roughly 15-20% compared to Jan 2025, squeezing profit margins for smaller mining operations.
📉 January 2026: The Price Action
Today, the market has cooled off. The "moon" didn't happen in a straight line.
* BTC Price: Consolidating in the $96,000 - $104,000 range.
* Altcoins: Liquidity is fragmented. Money is flowing into "Real World Assets" (RWA) regarding energy and commodities, rather than meme coins, as investors seek safety during trade tensions.
* World Liberty Financial (WLFI): The Trump family project has retraced significantly from its post-inauguration highs, serving as a reminder that political backing does not guarantee price stability.
🔍 Expectations vs. Reality: The Report Card
Here is how the major promises of 2025 held up against the reality of 2026:
🏛️ Regulation
* Expectation: Total Deregulation.
* Reality: The SEC is friendlier, and institutional access is easier. However, global AML/KYC rules have actually tightened significantly. The administration is cracking down on anonymity to prevent tariff evasion via crypto rails.
⚡ Energy & Mining
* Expectation: "Drill, baby, drill" would make the US the mining capital of the world.
* Reality: Energy production increased, but AI Data Centers became the new dominant buyer. Tech giants are outbidding crypto miners for power contracts, making hashrate growth harder than expected.
🇺🇸 US Strategic Reserve
* Expectation: The US Government buys 1 Million BTC immediately.
* Reality: The "Bitcoin Act" is stalled in Congress. Budget deficit concerns, intensified by trade war subsidies, have pushed this purchase down the priority list.
💡 What Does This Mean for You?
The "Trump Effect" pushed BTC over $100k, but his trade policies are now the main source of volatility. We have moved from a "Political Hype" market to a "Macro-Driven" market.
* The Bull Case: If tariffs cause the Fed to cut rates to save the economy, liquidity will flood back into crypto.
* The Bear Case: If trade wars lead to a global recession, crypto may sell off alongside equities.
Conclusion: January 2026 proves that while the White House is crypto-friendly, the broader economic war (Tariffs) is keeping a lid on the next parabolic run.
💬 What is your take on the Tariffs? Do you see them as bullish for BTC (inflation hedge) or bearish (strong dollar)? Let’s discuss below! 👇
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
Tags: #Bitcoin #Trump #MacroEconomics #TradeWar #January2026 #DOGE #ETH

On January 21, 2026, the market has experienced a tsunami! The price has reached a level of $0.24, which is an increase of over 250% in the past 7 days. The main reasons for this explosive growth are the new partnerships with Chainlink. Through this collaboration, moving tokenized assets cross-chain will become extremely easy and secure. Investor confidence is increasing because Dusk has become not just a coin but an infrastructure for institutional finance. The on-chain trading volume has reached a record of over $300M, which is proof that both retail and large 'whales' are interested in this project. If this momentum continues, it could soon hit the target of $0.50. 2026 is truly the year of privacy and compliance! #Dusk # #Chainlink #CryptoRally #January2026

January could become a critical stress test for the crypto market, with multiple events lining up that may increase downside pressure especially for BTC and ETH.
🗓️ January 15: A Key Date for Bitcoin
We’ve already highlighted January 15 as an important date for $BTC . On that day, MSCI will decide on the status of DTA-linked companies, including firms like MicroStrategy (MSTR). Any unfavorable decision could ripple through Bitcoin-linked equities and sentiment 📊.
But BTC isn’t the only asset facing risk.
⚠️ ETH Faces a Unique Structural Risk
Another major event tied to January 15 could negatively impact Ethereum.
BitMine shareholders will vote on approving bonus packages for Tom Lee, and these incentives create a strong short-term buying motive for ETH.
💰 Why This Matters
If the bonus package is approved, Tom Lee receives:
$15M upfront
Additional bonuses tied directly to ETH accumulation targets
Bonus milestones:
⚪ 4% of ETH supply → 500,000 PSU (~$15M)
⚪ 5% of ETH supply → 1,000,000 PSU (~$30M)
BitMine already holds more than 4% of total ETH supply, and Tom Lee has publicly stated that 5% is the primary target 🎯.
📉 What Happens After 5%?
Once that target is reached, it’s logical to expect that:
Aggressive ETH buying slows down
Incentive-driven accumulation ends
Demand drops sharply
Right now, BitMine is essentially the only company buying ETH consistently at large scale — and even that hasn’t been enough to stop ETH from sliding.
If their buying pressure fades:
📉 Demand decreases
📤 Selling pressure remains
⚠️ Risk of a deeper ETH correction increases
🏛️ Macro Risk Adds More Fuel
On top of crypto-specific risks, there’s also a macro threat:
📅 January 1 — The U.S. could once again face a government shutdown, as funding was only temporarily extended until the end of 2025.
That means:
Risk-off sentiment
Liquidity stress
Volatility across crypto and traditional markets
🧠 Bottom Line
Q1 may not be easy.
BTC faces institutional and index-related uncertainty
$ETH risks losing its largest source of buying pressure
Macro conditions remain fragile
📌 The key isn’t panic it’s preparation. Volatility favors those who stay informed, patient, and disciplined.
January could bring pain but it will also bring opportunity for those ready to act. 💡📊#USGDPUpdate #January2026

It happened while most were still nursing the wounds of the December volatility. I noticed a pattern on the morning of January 14th—it wasn't the sudden green candles that caught my eye, but rather the lack of noise. Usually, when Bitcoin makes a run for $95,000, the derivatives market goes into a frenzy, with funding rates screaming toward the sky as retail traders pile on the leverage. This time, it was different. Underneath the surface, the market felt steady, almost earned.
When i first looked at the data for this week, what struck me was the aggressive deleveraging that happened just before this move. Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives dropped nearly 30% from the October peaks, according to recent on-chain metrics. This means the "garbage" leverage—the high-risk positions that cause those nasty cascading liquidations—had been flushed out. We are seeing a market rebound built on a foundation of spot buying and institutional positioning rather than just speculative froth. $BTC hitting $97,000 isn't just a number; it’s a structural shift.
Understanding that helps explain why we aren't seeing the usual massive sell-offs the moment we hit a new high. The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) metric is hovering around 0.53, which is historically quite low. To translate that into human terms: the older, "smart money" coins aren't moving. The whales who have held through multiple cycles are sitting on their hands, letting the young coins circulate. If this holds, it suggests that the current price strength isn't just a temporary reprieve but a move with actual quality behind it.
Meanwhile, the texture of the altcoin market is changing how we view "Altseason." We saw Ethereum reclaim $3,300 recently, but it’s struggling to flip that resistance into support. It remains to be seen if $ETH can find its own catalyst, especially with Layer-2 networks now handling so much of the actual activity. But the rebound is real for assets with strong financial health. I’m seeing coins like $BNB holding firm above $940, while outliers like $DASH and $GLMR are posting double-digit gains, showing that liquidity is starting to rotate into specific narratives rather than just spraying across the whole board.
That momentum creates another effect: the "wait-and-see" crowd is starting to get restless. Net taker volume on Binance recently exceeded $500 million in a single hour of aggressive market buying. This is often the signal that the sidelines are finally jumping in. While some analysts still argue this could be a counter-trend bounce, the fact that Bitcoin is securing daily closes above $95,000 is weakening the bear case significantly.
As we head into the rest of January, this specific rebound reveals a bigger pattern. We are moving away from the "wild west" volatility of 2025 and into a more mature, institutional-led growth phase for 2026. The record $130 billion in crypto fund inflows from last year is finally starting to manifest as a floor for the market. The risk of a "black swan" always exists, especially with the current geopolitical uncertainty, but the on-chain data suggests the floor is much higher than people think.
The most successful traders right now aren't the ones chasing the +50% meme pumps. They are the ones watching the deleveraging cycles and the long-term holder behavior. This rebound wasn't built on hype; it was built on a clean slate.
One sharp observation to leave you with: When the market goes up and nobody is shouting "to the moon," that’s usually when the move has the most room to run.
What's your move for the weekend? Are you chasing the $BTC breakout or waiting for an $ETH catch-up? Let’s discuss below! 👇
#MarketRebound #BTC #ETH #BNB #CryptoTrading #January2026 #WhaleWatch