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Bitcoin rally to $200,000 or $300,000 is possible based on the 'power law' model
The parabolic rise of Bitcoin could last until Christmas, with a cycle peak near $300,000, according to an analyst.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin is ahead of its long-term 'power law' curve, which has historically led to euphoric price peaks in previous cycles.
The decline of the dollar and anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could trigger a broader rally in risk assets, with Bitcoin as one of the main beneficiaries.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin is ahead of its long-term 'power law' curve, which has historically led to euphoric price peaks in previous cycles.
The decline of the dollar and anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could trigger a broader rally in risk assets, with Bitcoin as one of the main beneficiaries.
Arthur Hayes and the chief information officer of Bitwise remain optimistic as Bitcoin falls
Arthur Hayes claims that the increase in U.S. debt will force the Fed to implement a 'covert quantitative easing', injecting liquidity that could revive the next rise of Bitcoin.
The recent drop of Bitcoin below 100,000 dollars, its lowest level since June, has raised concerns among cryptocurrency investors. However, two well-known figures in the market offer a more optimistic view on the future of Bitcoin.
The chief investment officer of Bitwise, Matt Hougan, believes that the latest drop reflects the peak of retail capitulation, rather than the beginning of a deeper collapse. 'Retail cryptocurrency trading is in a state of maximum despair,' he stated on Tuesday's Crypto World program on CNBC. 'We have seen explosions of leverage... the native retail cryptocurrency market is more depressed than ever.'
The recent drop of Bitcoin below 100,000 dollars, its lowest level since June, has raised concerns among cryptocurrency investors. However, two well-known figures in the market offer a more optimistic view on the future of Bitcoin.
The chief investment officer of Bitwise, Matt Hougan, believes that the latest drop reflects the peak of retail capitulation, rather than the beginning of a deeper collapse. 'Retail cryptocurrency trading is in a state of maximum despair,' he stated on Tuesday's Crypto World program on CNBC. 'We have seen explosions of leverage... the native retail cryptocurrency market is more depressed than ever.'
#PreciodelBitcoin
✅ What is happening
Bitcoin has erased all its gains from 2025 and is now below the level it started the year.
It has fallen considerably from its October highs (~ US $126,000) to levels below US $90,000.
The crypto market as a whole has suffered a significant setback: several hundreds of billions of dollars have been lost in a short time.
Analysts point out that cryptocurrencies no longer behave as a safe haven against macroeconomic uncertainty, but are moving strongly in rhythm with traditional risk assets.
🔍 Why is this setback occurring?
Some key factors:
Less appetite for risk: When markets are fearful, investors sell assets they consider risky. Bitcoin is very volatile, and many see it as a risk asset. In periods of risk-off, it tends to be sold.
Interest rate expectations: If central banks (like the U.S. Federal Reserve) do not lower rates or maintain signals that they may raise them, yieldless assets (like many cryptos) become less attractive.
Greater correlation with traditional markets: Although in the past Bitcoin was thought to move differently from the stock market or other assets, studies now show that its behavior is more aligned with risk markets.
Excess optimism previously: In 2025, there was a lot of bullish momentum under the hypothesis of institutional adoption, favorable regulations, or a new crypto era. But when some of those expectations were delayed or did not materialize as thought, the rebound effect faded.
🧮 What implications does this have — and what should you consider
If you thought Bitcoin would serve as a hedge against crises or inflation, this episode indicates that claim is now questionable: it is actually behaving more like a risk asset than as safe gold or bonds.$BTC
✅ What is happening
Bitcoin has erased all its gains from 2025 and is now below the level it started the year.
It has fallen considerably from its October highs (~ US $126,000) to levels below US $90,000.
The crypto market as a whole has suffered a significant setback: several hundreds of billions of dollars have been lost in a short time.
Analysts point out that cryptocurrencies no longer behave as a safe haven against macroeconomic uncertainty, but are moving strongly in rhythm with traditional risk assets.
🔍 Why is this setback occurring?
Some key factors:
Less appetite for risk: When markets are fearful, investors sell assets they consider risky. Bitcoin is very volatile, and many see it as a risk asset. In periods of risk-off, it tends to be sold.
Interest rate expectations: If central banks (like the U.S. Federal Reserve) do not lower rates or maintain signals that they may raise them, yieldless assets (like many cryptos) become less attractive.
Greater correlation with traditional markets: Although in the past Bitcoin was thought to move differently from the stock market or other assets, studies now show that its behavior is more aligned with risk markets.
Excess optimism previously: In 2025, there was a lot of bullish momentum under the hypothesis of institutional adoption, favorable regulations, or a new crypto era. But when some of those expectations were delayed or did not materialize as thought, the rebound effect faded.
🧮 What implications does this have — and what should you consider
If you thought Bitcoin would serve as a hedge against crises or inflation, this episode indicates that claim is now questionable: it is actually behaving more like a risk asset than as safe gold or bonds.$BTC
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