yencarry

🚨 JAPAN RATE HIKE RISK IS PEAKING — DON’T CATCH THE FALLING KNIFE 🇯🇵

Markets felt the shock early Friday — and for good reason.

What’s unfolding isn’t random volatility. It’s macro pressure building to a release point.

📅 WHY THIS WEEK MATTERS

The Bank of Japan meets on the 18th–19th, and market pricing is now extremely aggressive.

On prediction markets, the probability of a hike toward 0.75% has surged close to 98% — levels Japan hasn’t seen in decades.

That alone is enough to force positioning changes.

💣 THE REAL RISK: YEN CARRY UNWIND

For years, borrowing yen was easy money:

• Borrow cheap yen

• Convert to dollars

• Earn higher yields elsewhere

That trade is now under stress.

As rates rise:

• Borrowing costs jump

• Carry trades stop working

• Positions get unwound

• Assets are sold to repay yen liabilities

This creates forced selling, not emotional selling.

📉 WHY CRYPTO FEELS HEAVY

BTC and alts aren’t dropping because conviction is gone —

they’re reacting to liquidity tightening from Japan, one of the most important funding currencies in global markets.

This is macro pressure, not a narrative collapse.

⚠️ IMPORTANT WARNING

When probability gets this extreme, trying to bottom-fish is dangerous.

A falling knife doesn’t look sharp until it cuts.

📌 STRATEGY REMINDER

• Capital preservation comes first

• Let panic exhaust itself

• Wait for positioning to reset

• Enter when pressure fades — not when headlines peak

The best trades come after forced selling ends, not during it.

😌 FINAL THOUGHT

You don’t need to catch every dip.

You just need to survive the volatility.

Buy low. Stay patient. Laugh last.

$ACE $DGB
#Japan #BOJ #YenCarry #CryptoMarkets #BinanceSquare