๐Ÿ“‰ Federal Reserve Signals Possible Interest Rate Cuts by End of 2025

The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes hint at a potential shift in monetary policy that could bring interest rate cuts before the end of the year. According to BlockBeats, option pricing now suggests a mildly lower baseline policy path, opening the door for one to two rate cuts, each around 25 basis points. This projection marks a slight adjustment from the expectations set during the March FOMC meeting.


Whatโ€™s catching attention is the leftward shift in the probability distribution for year-end interest ratesโ€”pointing to rising downside risks in the Fedโ€™s policy outlook.


On the other hand, the futures market is pricing in a more aggressive rate-cut scenario, implying up to three rate reductions by yearโ€™s end. This reflects growing market sentiment that the Fed may need to act faster in response to evolving economic conditions.

Despite these movements, survey-based forecasts show relatively stable expectations, with most analysts still anticipating two to three cuts. However, diverging opinions among experts indicate uncertainty about the Fedโ€™s next move.



๐Ÿ” Key Takeaway:

The stage is set for a potential easing cycle, but the path forward remains uncertain โ€” all eyes on the Fed.


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