Stage One: Shock
This occurred in the month of October.
Rapid rise, achieving a new peak, spread of FOMO, and a large segment of people entering at the peaks.
Immediately afterwards, there was a sharp decline that created a strong shock for the herd in the market.
What happened on October 10 with a very strong decline was a clear confirmation of the beginning of this phase, which is the first stage of the bear market.
Phase two: Consolidation (Bull Trap)
In this phase I was waiting for a bounce, but not to form a new peak but a trap peak.
Indeed, we saw the price stabilize for a long time, more than two months in the same range.
This consolidation has given reasons for an upward movement to the area of 107 thousand, which is a legitimate target technically.
But it was clearly noted that the area of 98 – 101 thousand has become strong resistance after being support.
The price interacted with it and failed to break through, and from there we officially entered phase three.
Phase three: Fear and panic
This is the phase that started about a week ago.
Free fall from levels 90 thousand to 60 thousand, more than 25% drop without any real bounce.
In this phase, we observe traders' behavior:
Buy at the first stop (for example, 84)
Slight fluctuation then break to 77 → Sell
Buy at 71 → Break to 66 → Sell
Result:
Buy tops + Sell bottoms
And this is a clear characteristic of the fear and panic phase.
Phase four: Capitulation
It was noted in the last update that the price may:
It fluctuates from a week to several weeks in the range of 60 thousand
It bounces back to levels 74 – 80 thousand (it actually reached 71)
In this phase:
The market is trying to absorb pessimism
Then a final drop occurs
The same movement that happened previously in the range of 80 – 98 thousand may repeat, where volatility lasted more than two months.
After 7 to 10 weeks, the market usually enters a state of complete capitulation:
No appetite for buying
Severe boredom
Volatility then a new break
Phase five and final: Accumulation
This is the longest phase in the bear market.
The movement is boring, news is negative, everyone is talking about:
Bitcoin failure – end of the market – no rise today
Expected buying ranges: 45 – 35 thousand (accumulation not entering in one go)
And God willing:
The end of this phase is approximately between
October 19 – November beginning
And if God permits, I will alert about it in time.
Crypto Lens 📊