Imagine this: Bitcoin, the “digital gold” that has turned dreamers into millionaires and promised a financial revolution for all, could be teetering on the edge of a precipice. While institutional giants like BlackRock and Fidelity inject fortunes into BTC ETFs, celebrating its maturity under friendly policies like those of the Trump era, a veteran analyst on X known as “No Limits” drops a bomb: the generational fund could arrive in October-November 2026, sinking the price to $45,000-$50,000. Is this a prophetic vision rooted in historical patterns that do not lie, or mere alarmism that ignores the “super cycle” dreamed of by enthusiasts like CZ of Binance? This prediction not only clashes with the overflowing optimism post-halving of 2024, but also raises an uncomfortable question: is Bitcoin a stable asset for the future, or is it still a gamble where retail investors always come out on the losing end? In this article, we explore this controversial thesis, verify it with hard data, and enrich it with the perspective of PlanB, the guru of the Stock-to-Flow model, who offers an optimistic long-term counterpoint. Get ready for a journey through the ups and downs of the crypto market – because, what if “No Limits” is right and the next big rally catches you off guard?
Let's break down the thesis of 'No Limits' calmly, as if we were unraveling a fascinating enigma. Its approach is an elegant dance between two dimensions: time, or horizontal axis, and price, or vertical axis. Inspired by Bitcoin's halvings – those magical events every four years that cut miners' rewards and ignite scarcity – it observes patterns that repeat like a cosmic clock. For the first halving in 2012, 406 days passed from the historical peak to the deepest valley. In 2016, 363 days; in 2020, 376. Projecting this to the current cycle, with a peak of $126,200 in October 2025, the great capitulation could arrive in October-November 2026. In that time window, regardless of the price, it recommends buying with fury – a shrewd hedge against the fear that the market won't drop enough for your buy orders based solely on price levels.
On the vertical axis, 'No Limits' is already acting: it started accumulating in the $60,000 range, a call made when Bitcoin was dancing at $114,000 in October 2025, in full euphoria where everyone swore the floor was $100,000. And look, reality proved him right with a 50% drop. His strategy is a diversified and bold DCA (dollar-cost averaging): $500,000 daily if any of the conditions are activated – the magic date in 2026 or a price below $60,000. But here lies the controversy: while many dream of a 'super cycle' driven by mass adoption, 'No Limits' remains firm that traditional cycles persist, evoking memories of crashes like that of 2018 or the panic of COVID in 2020. It's as if he says: 'Let's not fall into the hype trap; history is our best guide.'
To solidify this, let's look back to the past, where Bitcoin cycles unfold with an almost poetic precision. Analysts like @nobrainflip on X have gracefully mapped these macro-cycles: bull markets lasting about 1,064 days, followed by bear markets of 364. From the bull of 2015-2017, culminating at $19,666, to the bear that took us to $3,200 in 2018; then the rally to $69,000 in 2021, and the bottom at $15,500 in 2022. The most recent cycle, from November 2022 to October 2025, fit perfectly into those 1,064 days. These patterns are not coincidences; they are tied to the halvings and drawdowns of 70-85%, where the market purges excess and is reborn.
Here comes the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) indicator, a tool that 'No Limits' adores like a reliable old friend. It marks 'blue zones' of total capitulation at historical bottoms – 2018, 2020, 2022 – without failing once. In February 2026, with Bitcoin hovering around $70,500 after touching $60,000, NUPL has not yet entered that zone, suggesting more pain ahead. 'No Limits' bets on $45,000-$50,000 to trigger it, a 60-65% drop from the peak – a prediction that clashes with the flow of ETFs surpassing $140 billion in assets under management and pro-crypto policies from the SEC. Critics accuse him of ignoring these tailwinds, but his past successes – buying at $3,000 in 2020 or $16,000 in 2022 – give him an aura of wisdom. Of course, he has had stumbles, like failed shorts on gold, but in the volatile crypto world, who hasn't?
Now, to balance this gloomy narrative, let's integrate the vision of PlanB, the architect of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, who sees Bitcoin not as a fleeting cycle, but as a perpetually rising asset toward greatness. PlanB compares Bitcoin to gold, emphasizing its increasing scarcity: the existing stock divided by the new flow of coins. His model does not predict daily peaks and valleys, but epic transitions, projecting that Bitcoin will surpass gold's market capitalization ($15 trillion) and reach $30 trillion or more. For this post-halving cycle 2024 (2024-2028), he anticipates an average price between $250,000 and $1 million. By February 2026, the average hovers around $90,000 – higher than the previous cycle's $34,000 – leaving room for a jump to $350,000 in the remaining months and fulfilling S2F.
In the current bear market context, with Bitcoin down 40% from its ATH and the RSI at 49 (a sign of weakness), PlanB paints four scenarios for 2026 that complement and contrast with 'No Limits'. In the worst case, an 80% drop takes us to $25,000, echoing historical drawdowns. The typical: support at the 200-week moving average ($58,000) or realized price ($55,000), aligning with the $45,000-$50,000 range of 'No Limits'. The soft: bouncing off the previous ATH of $69,000. And the optimistic: the recent low of $72,900 was already the bottom. PlanB notes that the bull of 2025 was 'weak' without extreme RSI peaks, which could mean a superficial bear, followed by a late rally in 2026-2027, breaking the traditional four-year pattern.
This perspective adds layers of hope: while 'No Limits' focuses on cyclical timing for accumulation, PlanB emphasizes the current undervaluation – S2F values Bitcoin at $500,000 today – driven by institutions that see BTC as a refuge against inflation. He has been accurate in past cyclical averages ($5,000 in 2012-2016, $34,000 in 2016-2020), although critics point out post-facto adjustments. Together, these analysts form a dynamic duo: 'No Limits' prepares you for winter, PlanB for eternal spring.
What does this mean for you, the everyday investor? The prediction of 'No Limits', enriched by PlanB, is not a cry of panic, but a map to navigate the storm. Its aggressive DCA mitigates risks: buying on fixed dates prevents you from missing out if the price doesn't hit your ideal level, while thresholds like $60,000 capture early dips. PlanB adds: monitor the RSI, the 200-week average, and the realized price; if sellers exhaust (traumatized veterans vs. hungry banks), the rebound could be epic. Remember, a 50% drop is 'nothing' compared to crashes of 99% in failed exchanges, as 'No Limits' says. Diversify: altcoins, stablecoins during the bear; and always, DYOR – do your own research.
The controversy doesn't end here: is it ethical for these influencers to share strategies that could lead to massive losses for novices? 'No Limits' makes it public 'for you to win', urging to activate notifications on X. PlanB, with his mantra 'all models are wrong, some are useful', promotes humility. In a market shaped by SEC regulations, global events, and explosive adoption, this hybrid thesis challenges the bullish consensus, inviting you to prepare for a 'crypto winter' that could be the prelude to greater glories.
Extending our exploration, let's consider how these patterns might evolve in a post-2026 world. If PlanB is right, the halving of 2028 could catapult Bitcoin to $500,000-$1 million, transforming it into a global standard like digital gold. Imagine nations adopting BTC as reserve, stablecoins revolutionizing remittances, and RWAs (real-world assets) tokenized democratizing investments. But 'No Limits' warns: ignore the cycles at your own risk; the bottom of 2026 could be the last opportunity to enter cheaply before that explosion.
In the end, this fusion of visions – the temporal pragmatism of 'No Limits' with the structural optimism of PlanB – leaves us with a timeless lesson: crypto is not for the faint of heart, but for the patient and strategic. Let’s not moralize about risks; embrace the data, not the hype. If these analysts are right, those prepared will not only survive but thrive in the next bull. Do you bet on temporary collapse or eternal resilience? The market, as always, will be the supreme judge. Stay alert, activate those notifications, and may crypto fortune smile upon you.